FIFA World Cup predictions 2026

I am sitting in front of my computer this morning, wearing my 1954 retro German football shirt. Why? Because today is the big day.

Every four years, I write a note that has many more readers than anything else I publish. It all started 12 years ago when I used an economic model to forecast the winner of the World Cup in Brazil. I thought it would become an exercise in showing the hubris of economists who think they can forecast anything with a model, even if it is effectively a random outcome.

And then I got it right. And again in 2018. And a third time in 2022.

After being right three times in a row, I have been inundated by requests over the last four years to forecast the Euros, the Olympics, the Rugby World Cup, etc. And somehow, what was meant to show that economic models cannot be trusted is starting to show why fund managers that have been outperforming for a while suddenly become ‘star managers’ even if their achievement is almost entirely due to luck rather than skill.

So here it is, very much tongue in cheek. By popular demand, my forecasts for the FIFA World Cup 2026:

https://panmureliberum.com/media/clcnihij/strategy-fifa-world-cup-predictions-2026.pdf