Not well, I would say, after reading an analysis of US mutual fund managers by Matteo Crosignani and his collaborators. The problem is not so much that active managers can’t predict geopolitical shocks like the export bans of US goods to China investigated in this study, but how they deal with the fallout from the shock.
Russell Napier has been arguing for years that western firms should (begin to) hire managers from EM because they are much more accustomed to working in / working around shocks. And i wonder if we would have seen older managers perform better in the above study if it had made that distinction.
Just in, related, in so far that this substack discusses studies, and economics studies in particular, from the always interesting The Nature-Nurture-Nietzsche Newsletter by Steve Stewart Williams, this:
Should We Trust Social Science Research?
I.e. Does it replicate?
'As a reader of The Nature-Nurture-Nietzsche Newsletter, you’ve no doubt heard of the replication crisis: the finding that only around half of studies in the social sciences replicate. Well, here’s a question for you: Is that finding itself replicable?
A massive new study by Andrew Tyner and colleagues, published in the journal Nature, addresses that thorny question, and comes to a strong conclusion: Yes.'
Economics fares worst but don't worry: psychology, business, political sciences and last but never least sociology also compete for last place.
Russell Napier has been arguing for years that western firms should (begin to) hire managers from EM because they are much more accustomed to working in / working around shocks. And i wonder if we would have seen older managers perform better in the above study if it had made that distinction.
Just in, related, in so far that this substack discusses studies, and economics studies in particular, from the always interesting The Nature-Nurture-Nietzsche Newsletter by Steve Stewart Williams, this:
Should We Trust Social Science Research?
I.e. Does it replicate?
'As a reader of The Nature-Nurture-Nietzsche Newsletter, you’ve no doubt heard of the replication crisis: the finding that only around half of studies in the social sciences replicate. Well, here’s a question for you: Is that finding itself replicable?
A massive new study by Andrew Tyner and colleagues, published in the journal Nature, addresses that thorny question, and comes to a strong conclusion: Yes.'
Economics fares worst but don't worry: psychology, business, political sciences and last but never least sociology also compete for last place.
https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/should-we-trust-social-science-research?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=318964&post_id=192915809&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=6mos7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Doesn't surprise me in the least.
when you will announce that Portugal will be the winner of the 2026 World Cup.
the others still don't know tell them already.
when you will announce that Portugal will be the winner of the 2026 World Cup.
the others still don't know tell them already