I think this app has unintended consequences
A friend recently pointed out the CityApp to me. With the help of this online app, one can assess how the climate will change in the next 60 years for a large number of cities in the world. The app will then estimate which city has the most similar climate to this projection today.
To give you an example, let’s look at my hometown of London in the UK. Here is what the app says how the climate in London will change. If we don’t do anything to mitigate climate change, London’s climate in 60 years will resemble that of Bordeaux in Southwest France today. That sounds pretty good to me, I have to say. And it should encourage a lot of people to invest in vineyards in the south of England…
Projected climate in London in 60 years
Source: University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
It sounds even better when you compare the projected climate if we successfully mitigate climate change and come close to the Paris climate goals. In that case, the climate in London will only change to one that is similar to the climate in Normandy today. In other words, much cooler and rainier than if we continue to burn fossil fuels like we used to. Sure enough, the cheese will be good, but the weather will be almost as miserable as London weather today.
Projected climate in London with successful climate change mitigation
Source: University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
So, I am not sure if this app really motivates people in Northern Europe or Canada to fight climate change. But then again, try Singapore and see what the result is…
playing around with such apps is fun!
Results are weird sometimes, however -- if you live in Igoumenitsa, Greece right now, be prepared for the local climate in 60 years... to be like it is 50 miles south, in the present. Same difference, as the Brits say.
More to the point, I am neither worried nor complacent about what will happen if climate change has linear and predictable results, as the app would indicate. I am worried about fat tails and tipping points. They are what we can't really predict, much less 60 years in advance, and that's why we can't just mitigate by buying aircon or moving 200 miles to the north.