I stopped following soccer since COVID, but I have some clues.
When the World Cup was played in the Americas, a South American team always won (except for Germany's victory in Brazil), and vice versa, when it was played in Europe, a European team always won.
The longest period Brazil went without winning a World Cup after winning its first was 24 years (1970-1994).
The last World Cup was won 24 years ago.
The other South American team with a chance of winning is Argentina, which won the last edition, but Brazil is the only team to have won twice in a row.
Please can you write an article (or redirect me) on research productivity namely how you find the time to read so much material and write this alongside your day job! Asking for a friend.
I get that question all the time, but the answer is, unfortunately, short, simple, and sad. I don’t have children, and I don’t have a TV. As a result, I have many, many more hours in a day than most people. And since I don’t have a life, I chose to fill them with writing posts.
“Football is a simple game: twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.” Could you write an article about active management vs passive portfolio management and why at the end it is always the passive PM management which win !
I almost forgot the World Cup is this year. Prediction markets will see even higher yearly revenues purely because of this.
If I was a betting man, I’d bet on England to get pretty far this year, especially since they have a solid team (and a better manager this time) but they’ve been underperforming in the last few World Cups.
I’ll definitely read your econometrics models article when you publish it and see how much your predictions have changed vs 2022.
I totally agree. Everything I was taught in money and banking in 1983 was wrong. As for macroeconomics, I think Keynes was right, but so many do not understand his intention or distort it for their own purposes.
Thank you for your articles. I wish I had more time to read them. This synopsis helps, I'll go back and read some. I like how you are open-minded and unusual in that generally commentators re: finance and economics are very right wing and you are balanced and refreshingly well rounded. Your European outlook is also much appreciated to the 'little Englander' mentality that is present in for example FT comments. Thank you again and look forward to your posts in 2026. If I weren't such a poorly paid academic I would subscribe. Cheers,
Thank you for your comments. As for the balanced thing, my colleagues at work think I am a socialist. But then again, the people working in the financial industry in the UK, by now, vote in my estimation 50% Conservatives, 40% Reform and 10% LibDem. Guess which block I belong to…
2026 world cup winner
Brazil
I stopped following soccer since COVID, but I have some clues.
When the World Cup was played in the Americas, a South American team always won (except for Germany's victory in Brazil), and vice versa, when it was played in Europe, a European team always won.
The longest period Brazil went without winning a World Cup after winning its first was 24 years (1970-1994).
The last World Cup was won 24 years ago.
The other South American team with a chance of winning is Argentina, which won the last edition, but Brazil is the only team to have won twice in a row.
They have a coach who is used to winning.
Later this year, I will publish my usual predictions for the World Cup. Let’s see what my model comes up with. I hope it’s NOT Brazil.
Please can you write an article (or redirect me) on research productivity namely how you find the time to read so much material and write this alongside your day job! Asking for a friend.
I get that question all the time, but the answer is, unfortunately, short, simple, and sad. I don’t have children, and I don’t have a TV. As a result, I have many, many more hours in a day than most people. And since I don’t have a life, I chose to fill them with writing posts.
“Football is a simple game: twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.” Could you write an article about active management vs passive portfolio management and why at the end it is always the passive PM management which win !
I almost forgot the World Cup is this year. Prediction markets will see even higher yearly revenues purely because of this.
If I was a betting man, I’d bet on England to get pretty far this year, especially since they have a solid team (and a better manager this time) but they’ve been underperforming in the last few World Cups.
I’ll definitely read your econometrics models article when you publish it and see how much your predictions have changed vs 2022.
I totally agree. Everything I was taught in money and banking in 1983 was wrong. As for macroeconomics, I think Keynes was right, but so many do not understand his intention or distort it for their own purposes.
Thank you for your articles. I wish I had more time to read them. This synopsis helps, I'll go back and read some. I like how you are open-minded and unusual in that generally commentators re: finance and economics are very right wing and you are balanced and refreshingly well rounded. Your European outlook is also much appreciated to the 'little Englander' mentality that is present in for example FT comments. Thank you again and look forward to your posts in 2026. If I weren't such a poorly paid academic I would subscribe. Cheers,
Thank you for your comments. As for the balanced thing, my colleagues at work think I am a socialist. But then again, the people working in the financial industry in the UK, by now, vote in my estimation 50% Conservatives, 40% Reform and 10% LibDem. Guess which block I belong to…
Yeah, I bet!:-) OMG, 90% just left of Attila the Hun!? Stand firm!;-)
"but only a mad or extremely bored person would read all of them"....I AM READING ALL OF THEM :)
So, are you bored, or mad? 😂
SIMPLE CURIOSITY