It’s getting wet out there
Climate change is changing our weather. And of course, global warming doesn’t simply mean it is getting warmer. Instead, we are seeing more extreme weather phenomena even in moderate climates such as the UK. We are now able to predict weather changes on a relatively granular level as Chris Brierley and Hannah Woodward have done for every electoral constituency in the UK.
Since the 1960s, we have seen the hottest day of the year become about 2C to 3C warmer on average.
Change in temperature of the hottest day since the 1960s
Source: Brierley and Woodward (2024)
This isn’t dramatic, but these are multi-year averages. In any given year, the swings are much larger so that we are breaking temperature records and have longer and more extreme heatwaves in the UK today. 40C was unimaginable in the UK a couple of decades ago. Now we had the first few days with these temperatures and in the future, these days will become more frequent still.
Indeed, here are the projections for the change in temperature of the hottest day in the year between today and 2040. Cities like London are expected to see another 1C increase in average temperature. And in the city of London itself, this 1C increase in the temperature of the hottest day will probably be even worse because of the urban heat island effect. So prepare yourself for some truly awful summer days if you live in London.
Projected change in temperature of the hottest day from 2021 to 2040
Source: Brierley and Woodward (2024)
But there is something even worse than a couple of super-hot days in a city where no house has air conditioning and where houses are designed to keep heat trapped inside rather than cool the rooms. And that is spending winter in a cold, and wet country like the UK. The projections for winter rainfall in the UK look truly terrifying to me. On average, rainfall in London is expected to increase by 10% in winter. As if winters weren’t cold and wet enough already…
Projected change in winter rainfall from 2021 to 2040
Source: Brierley and Woodward (2024)
Have you seen the scenes in CEE?