Older people consume differently
It goes without saying that consumption patterns change as people get older. Once people retire and enter their golden years, demand for healthcare services rises and demand for education drops. You don’t see too many septuagenarians among the student crowds in universities or in vocational training courses.
These changing consumption patterns mean that as population ageing progresses, different consumption across different parts of the economy changes at different rates. A new study from the IMF has used the demographic projections from the United Nations to estimate the change in consumption between 2024 and 2050 across various categories.
Take, for instance, Japan below. This is a society that is already quite old but continues to age further. The result is that the projected decline in the Japanese population of 15% translates into a similar 15% drop in consumption across most categories. Healthcare holds up a little better than the rest, but the differences are small.
Expected decline in consumption in Japan from 2024 to 2050
Source: Ando et al. (2025)
Now compare this with China. There, we will see a large number of people who are currently of working age move into retirement. The result is that consumption patterns shift dramatically. While the population is expected to shrink by about 11% between 2024 and 2050, healthcare consumption is expected to drop by only 2% while leisure and transport spending is expected to drop far more (almost 20%). Significant differences, even though the population decline is about the same as in Japan.
Expected decline in consumption in China from 2024 to 2050
Source: Ando et al. (2025)
Finally, if you want to have a really complicated example, take a look at Singapore, where the population is ageing but also growing. These make for a complete mix of projections with some consumption categories expected to increase (healthcare, housing) and others expected to decline (education, clothing).
Expected decline in consumption in Singapore from 2024 to 2050
Source: Ando et al. (2025)
Of course, these changing demand patterns provide the background against which to assess the revenue opportunity for consumer companies in different sectors. In most ageing societies the leisure and clothing retail sectors face structurally declining revenue growth, while healthcare providers and food retailers face a more benign macro backdrop.
A contrarian note, I see seniors well into their eighties not only being active, going to gyms, Nordic walking, cycling, but also participating in many learning opportunities. They may not be attending university or vocational classes, although lectures and craft classes are very popular. They’re travelling and making clothing purchases also into their eighties. They’re buying a lot of 📚 books.
These changing demand patterns help to give a clue to how one's personal expenditure might change -- if one were sufficiently "normal" -- when one moves from gainful employment into taking passive income.
That's actually pretty useful.