Open letter to the British public
Dear British public!
We have to have a serious discussion about your preferences. You see, I am an expert on economics and while you may agree with Michael Gove when he said during the Brexit campaign that “people in this country have had enough of experts” I doubt you would be similarly sceptical of “expert opinions” when it comes to choosing to leave the house through the front door or the third floor window. I guess you agree with me that sometimes logic has its advantages.
I have degrees in mathematics and economics and so, I think, I know a thing or two about logic and decision-making. One of the fundamental principles of decision-making is that if one is presented with different options, the preferences between these choices should be “transitive”.
Don’t argue with me that I am yet another expert using “big words” that no-one understands. Your love for Jacob Rees-Mogg shows me that – secretly – you adore big words, so I will use them as well. What transitive preferences mean is simple. When you are presented with apples and oranges and you happen to prefer apples over oranges, that is a preference. If you are presented with oranges and lemons and you happen to prefer eating oranges over eating lemons, that is another preference. If you are then presented with apples and lemons, I would expect you to prefer apples over lemons. The reason I would expect this is transitivity. Because you prefer apples over oranges and oranges over lemons, you should – logically – prefer apples over lemons. Makes sense, doesn’t it?
If this transitivity of preferences is violated, things become all funny and peculiar. The game “rock, paper, scissors” is an example where transitivity is violated. In this game that some of you call “paper, scissors, stone”, “rock” beats “scissors”, “scissors” beats “paper”, but “paper” beats “rock”. As a result, there is no dominant strategy to win the game every time – which makes it fun and exciting to play. It is so much fun to play “rock, paper, scissors” that London hosted the first ever European Championships in this game on 3 November 2018. As was to be expected, a contestant from Germany beat the last remaining contestant from the UK in the semi-final and then went on to win the tournament against a fellow German.
But while intransitive preferences are fun in a game, they can mess you up badly when it comes to the future of your country. When the House of Commons votes on the proposed Brexit deal today, it is likely to follow your preference in this matter and reject the deal. A recent poll by ComRes amongst 2,035 of you showed that you oppose the proposed deal by 42% to 26%. So be it.
But once you have made up your mind on this subject, you should consider the remaining options. Apparently, you also oppose a hard Brexit by 41% to 34%. Remaining in the EU and declaring the last two years as a bygone period also seems not to be an option since remaining in the EU is opposed 45% to 44%. In this vein, you also seem to oppose a second referendum by 50% to 40%. Which means that if the proposed deal fails in the Commons today, all the other options on the table are rejected by you as well.
You do realise that the UK is going to leave the EU in 73 days, don’t you? Apparently, the one preference you have is to leave the EU as quickly as possible since you oppose extending the leave date by 46% to 34%. But this expert tells you that if you do not want to extend the leave date, the outcome is going to be either one of the three remaining options, all of which you oppose. Of course, there is a fourth option, namely going back to the EU and negotiating a brand-new deal, just not in two years but instead two months. Given the track record of your Brexit Ministers over the last two years, shouldn’t you know that this outcome is as likely as Theresa May winning Strictly?
Consider this letter an intervention. After the proposed Brexit deal fails in the Commons, you have to make up your mind. By now, I really don’t care about your eventual choice anymore: remain, hard Brexit, extended leave date, do whatever you want, but get your bloody act together!
Yours sincerely
An economist
The attitude towards Brexit outcomes
Source: ComRes, Fidante Capital.