Popes are good for business
If you are not catholic, you may wonder what popes are good for? It’s the Head of State of the world’s smallest country who spends most of his time in his renaissance palace and occasionally steps out on a balcony to bless the world but otherwise is busy promoting the most conservative social views possible.
But clearly, I completely misunderstood the role of the pope and I thank Alexander Popov for enlightening me. He looked at the global travels of pope John Paul II. who was in office for 26 years from 1979 to 2005. During his papacy, he visited 129 countries, more than the 263 popes before him combined, which gave him the nickname ‘the flying pope’. The map below shows that he really had a knack for travelling.
Countries visited by the pope marked by the decade of the pope’s first visit
Source: Popov (2025)
You’d think having the pope come to visit is rather inconsequential for the host country. He gets off the plane, kisses the ground, and then gives a speech to thousands of followers. Pretty much the same as a Taylor Swift concert.
I should have known that this has economic consequences. After all, Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour influenced inflation rates in countries like Sweden.
Popov demonstrates that in the years after the pope’s visit, there is a statistically significant increase in trade for the visited countries. The effect is larger for smaller and less developed countries who gain a big international boost from the pope’s visit. After all, a visit by the pope is an event that is televised in many countries, so if the pope visits some poor country in Africa or Latin America, the world’s attention is focused on that country for a brief time. But that is enough to boost international trade for this country.
Boost in exports of a country visited by John Paul II for the first time
Source: Popov (2025)
That this is unlikely to be spurious correlation can be seen when one looks at trade with countries that are dominated by Catholics. The increase in trade with predominantly catholic countries is even larger after a visit by the pope than the average pickup in trade.
Boost in exports with other catholic countries after John Paul II visits for the first time
Source: Popov (2025)
So here is my message for the pope: You need to get out more. You are the world’s most successful trade envoy, and the world needs you now more than ever.
I had an inside view (let's say) on a papal visit to an Asian country, and I find it not surprising at all. A visit (especially the first visit) comes after years of underground diplomatic work to make sure that the country in question becomes more open to religious freedom, of course, but improves on a lot of other things, too (rule of law, attention to the disadvantaged, foreign investment...). So it's obvious that a pope visit, which is just the cusp of years and years of work (in my case, more than three from the moment the pope expressed his interest in visiting that particular country) is beneficial to the institutions of a country. I would not understate the impact on smaller states of the international network of donors that is usually mobilized for such travels. New roads, new schools etc in order to mark the occasion.
Love the idea, but have to ask... what about the control group?
Ie: exports from countries not visited by the pope during the same +/-5 year period.
(I think global trade has been on a rising trend throughout the period. Some of this might be due to falling transport costs, growth in tech, the fall of the berlin wall and the end of soviet communism.
Or possibly the pope has caused all of it...)