Self-promotion works, especially if you are bad at your job

I have come across a recent paper that measures equity analysts self-representation on LinkedIn and the tone they use to describe their research and their views on LinkedIn and in the media. It then compares this analysis of self-promotion with the accuracy of their forecasts and the analysts career trajectory.

Now, I am busy writing a couple more LinkedIn posts about some cool investment opportunities that are sure to generate double-digit returns in the next 12 months, so I will simply paste the summary section of the paper below. Read it and learn…

“To summarize, this study uncovers a robust negative correlation between analysts’ self-presentation tone on LinkedIn profiles and their forecast accuracy, a phenomenon we term the tone-performance inverse effect. We reveal that this effect is driven not by behavioral biases, such as optimism or overconfidence, but by deliberate impression management aimed at enhancing visibility and perceived competence in a competitive labor market.

Furthermore, we show that analysts’ optimistic self-presentation not only correlates with weak performance but also contributes to market mispricing, resembling the Mad Money effect. Market reactions show stronger excess returns for high-tone analysts’ upward revisions and positive ratings, with no similar effect for negative signals, highlighting the role of sentiment-driven heuristics in short-term pricing distortions.

Surprisingly, we find that analysts with low forecast accuracy but high self-presentation tone experience the highest rates of upward career transitions. This indicates that self-promotion can indeed help underperforming analysts secure more favorable job opportunities. For employers, we stress the importance of evaluating professions based on their verifiable professional track records rather than on self-framed impressions.”