Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Max's avatar

Owning up to a failed forecast publicly only works in your favor if the perceived loss of credibility and reliability not overpowers the

effect on perceived self-orient. Considering human loss aversion it is natural to try to burry the mistake, especially if you are not in full control of all communication.

Trust = (Credibility + Reliability + Intimacy) / Self-orientation

Expand full comment
Martin Schwoerer's avatar

What surprises me is that people who are totally wrong and don't really admit it somehow manage to continue on with their work. It points to a lack of failure culture in the financial business, which is not a good sign.

For every Jim Cramer who gets laughed out of Twitter every time he posts, there are plenty of other guys who got it wrong so often they should really give up their day jobs, but they seldom do.

Starting with the permabears who are as reliable as a stopped clock, continuing on with the Cassandras about which you so eloquently wrote, I remember this bloke who in April 2020 wrote on Seekingalpha.com how C19 would crash the global economy, no doubt about it. Two years later he was sure that the winter of '22 would see a severe recession or depression in Europe. No hedging, no remorse, nothing. How do these people stay in business? Don't clients do any research, or don't they care?

Expand full comment
7 more comments...

No posts