The failure gap

Apparently, most people vastly underestimate how often things around them go wrong. For every three species that go extinct, the public knows of one, for every five weapons undetected at airport security, people think one sneaks by. This and other insights are from a surprising study by Lauren Eskreis-Winkler and her colleagues. If you are interested in the reasons for this ‘failure gap’ i..e., why we underestimate failure rates, you should read the paper. In the meantime, here is the list of events they tested and the corresponding failure gap. Some of it mind-blowing…

The failure gap across a range of questions

Source: Eskreis-Winkler et al. (2026)

• Health: What percent of pregnancies end in miscarriage? Estimated: 19% - True: 21%

• Consumerism: What percent of online purchases get returned? Estimated: 22% - True: 30%

• Gender Equality: Globally, what percent of women have been victimized by violence? Estimated: 32% - True: 33%

• Cybersecurity: What percent of Americans have experienced identity theft? Estimated: 24% - True: 33%

• Medication: What percent of people who take Claritin experience relief from acute pain (relief is defined as at least a 50% reduction in pain over 4-6 hours)? Estimated: 31% - True: 36%

• Health 2: What percent of people will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their life? Estimated: 33% - True: 40%

• Education: What percent of adults lack basic math skills? Estimated: 26% - True: 40%

• Diplomacy: In what percent of countries worldwide have U.S. diplomatic relations broken down? In other words, what percent of countries worldwide has the U.S. fought or invaded? Estimated: 23% - True: 43%

• Poverty: Globally, what percent of people earn under $5.50 per day? Estimated: 40% - True: 46%

• Education: What percent of college students at a standard college graduate on time? Estimated: 33% - True: 48%

• Education: Globally, what percent of high school age students are enrolled in school? Estimated: 37% - True: 48%

• Medication: What percent of people who take Aleve experience relief from acute pain (relief is defined as at least a 50% reduction in pain over 4-6 hours)? Estimated: 37% - True: 49%

• Sports: Consider the ___ , a team of professional hockey players in the National Hockey League, the premier hockey league in the world. What percent of games do you think this team won last season? Estimated: 44% - True: 50%

• Wellness: What percent of people with a mental health disorder do not seek treatment? Estimated: 41% - True: 50%

• Underwater Biodiversity: What percent of underwater life has gone extinct since 1970? Estimated: 31% - True: 50%

• Wellbeing: What percent of people will be diagnosed with a mental health disorder in their lifetime? Estimated: 45% - True: 50%

• Healthcare: What percent of hospital personnel in U.S. hospitals meet national standards for hand-hygiene compliance? Estimated: 28% - True: 50%

• Medication: What percent of people who take Advil experience relief from acute pain (relief is defined as at least a 50% reduction in pain over 4-6 hours)? Estimated: 29% - True: 52%

• Infrastructure: Globally, what percent of people have a working toilet in their home? Estimated: 36% - True: 60%

• Economy 1: What percent of restaurants close within the first year? Estimated: 56% - True: 60%

• Medication: What percent of people who take Aspirin experience relief from acute pain (relief is defined as at least a 50% reduction in pain over 4-6 hours)? Estimated: 39% - True: 62%

• Medication: What percent of people who take Tylenol experience relief from acute pain (relief is defined as at least a 50% reduction in pain over 4-6 hours)? Estimated: 37% - True: 62%

• Law Enforcement: In what percent of crimes do police not identify a suspect? Estimated: 54% - True: 65%

• Wildlife Biodiversity: What percent of wildlife has gone extinct since 1970? Estimated: 25% - True: 69%

• National Security: What percent of the time does the TSA fail to detect weapons or explosives when they are there? Estimated: 14% - True: 70%

• Health 1: What percent of Americans age 20 and older are overweight? Estimated: 56% - True: 74%

• Environment 1: Globally, what percent of people litter? Estimated: 49% - True: 75%

• Sanitation: Globally, what percent of waste water flows into the environment untreated? Estimated: 38% - True: 80%

• Environment 2: What percent of the world’s land area has been affected by climate change? Estimated: 63% - True: 80%

• Energy: What percent of the world’s energy comes from fossil fuels? Estimated: 68% - True: 80%

• Economy 2: What percent of new businesses started by entrepreneurs close? Estimated: 60% - True: 80%

• Finances: What percent of Americans are in debt? Estimated: 67% - True: 80%

• Education: What percent of college students at a community college graduate on time? Estimated: 36% - True: 80%

• Equality: What percent of developed countries offer the same full legal protections to women that they offer to men? Estimated: 49% - True: 82%

• Food: What percent of people in the world lack proper nutrition (for example, they fall below recommended levels of daily fruit and vegetable intake)? Estimated: 46% - True: 82%

• Economy: What percent of countries are considered developed nations? Estimated: 52% - True: 83%

• Pollution: Globally, what percent of city-dwellers are exposed to air pollution levels that drastically exceed the safety levels set by the World Health Organization? Estimated: 54% - True: 85%

• Human Rights: In what percent of countries today do human rights violations like modern slavery exist? Estimated: 21% - True: 85%

• Innovation 2: What percent of new drugs fail (i.e., never get FDA approval)? Estimated: 58% - True: 85%

• Relationships: What percent of romantic relationships end in break-ups? Estimated: 65% - True: 85%

• Innovation 1: What percent of new patents are rejected? Estimated: 64% - True: 86%