The most hopeful chart of the year
In order to meet the Paris Climate goals by 2030, developed countries in Europe and North America need to reduce their electricity generation from coal to zero. And while the current US administration is adamant that there is a future for “clean coal” nobody has ever shown how one can meaningfully reduce the CO2 emissions from coal power plants. And frankly, I don’t care if the air coming out of a coal power plant is as clean as a whistle, all that matters is the amount of CO2 emitted by these plants. And more efficient coal burning processes will never be able to reduce the CO2 emissions to the level of natural gas power plants let alone nuclear energy or renewables.
Hence, I was absolutely delighted to see that the UK is on track to phase out coal power by 2025 without investing in new natural gas plants or other fossil fuel power plants. The chart below from the Guardian shows that in 2012 between 20% and 50% of UK power was generated by burning coal. Only five years later came the first day that the UK used zero energy produced from coal. This year, the UK energy grid routinely runs without using coal and the share of renewable energy is rising rapidly.
Unfortunately, not all European countries are as progressive as the UK when it comes to committing to lower CO2 emissions. The not-for-profit organisation Sandbag estimates that by 2030 there will still be 60 GW of coal power capacity left in Europe. And unfortunately, it is not just Poland and other Eastern European countries that are expected to rely heavily on coal. Europe’s largest economy, Germany still relies heavily on coal as a source of energy and three of the five biggest producers of coal power are German. These companies will face extreme long-term risks to their business and their share price as not only the cost of coal power to the climate but the impact on human health are increasingly being litigated in courts. In the 1990s the tobacco industry was brought almost to its knees through class-action lawsuits. Today, Bayer is severely wounded from the lawsuits about the negative health impact of Glyphosat and tomorrow producers of coal power may be next. German energy utilities have successfully lobbied the government to extend the lifetime of their coal power plants to 2045 and beyond. I doubt that these companies will be able to run these power plants for that long - especially now that Germany has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050.
Daily share of UK power generated by burning coal
Source: Gridwatch, Guardian.