The movie industry is constantly trying to find the next blockbuster, but after more than a hundred years, it seems there still is no hard and fast formula for success. Ironically, a movie that is a hit in one country may be a total flop in another and vice versa. Just think of Steven Seagal who is a major movie star in Russia, but nobody in Western Europe has heard from him in a while.
A study by Stelios Michalopoulos from Brown University and Christopher Rauh from Cambridge shed some light on these issues. They looked at societal values in different countries and within different states in the US and compared these values with the revenues generated by different movies. As one might expect, they found some interesting correlations.
In essence, they find that movies with stories that conform more to societal norms and values in a country or region are more likely to be screened in theatres there and tend to generate higher box office revenues.
Take a look at the box office revenue of Wonder Woman and Gladiator in different countries below. Wonder Woman has a female heroine while Gladiator is the ultimate testosterone-filled movie. But I have to say, it is an awesome testosterone-filled movie.
I digress…
The chart below shows that in countries with higher female participation in the labour force like Iceland, Switzerland, or New Zealand, Wonder Women did better than in countries with more traditional cultural values where women are supposed to stay at home and out of the workforce, such as Turkey or India.
The reverse is true for Gladiator. Looks like people in these countries can identify much more with Maximus Decimus Meridius, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions, and loyal servant to the TRUE emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son, husband to a murdered wife, who will have his vengeance, in this life or the next…
I digress…
Box office success in countries with different female labour force participation. Wonder Woman (left) and Gladiator (right)
Source: Michalopoulos and Rauh (2024)
It is not just gender roles; the effect is visible in other domains as well. Below is a comparison of the box office success of two movies in countries with different cultural affinity to technology and innovation. Mission Impossible Fallout on the left is a movie that celebrates high-tech gadgets, just like Bond movies do. Logan, on the right, however, is a movie in the X-Men franchise where a mutant child is chased by scientists who want to abduct it for experiments.
Box office success in countries with different patent activity. Mission Impossible Fallout (left) and Logan (right)
Source: Michalopoulos and Rauh (2024)
As you can see, countries with a higher affinity to technological progress, measured here as patent output per 100,000 people, loved Mission Impossible. The movie was a hit in the US, Korea, and Japan, but much less so in Argentina, Peru, and Venezuela. Meanwhile, Logan shows the reverse trend.
Alas then, if you want your movies to be successful, you must give the people what they want. The easier it is for them to identify with the story and the heroes of the movie, the more successful it will be.
The obvious solution is to make a Gladiator vs Wonder Woman movie 😀
Your post reminded me of the two below items.
I think this is why William Goldman’s quote from his 1982 memoir is still mostly accurate about movie industry:
“Nobody knows anything...... Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out, it's a guess and, if you're lucky, an educated one.” -
William Goldman, Adventures in the Screen Trade: A Personal View of Hollywood and Screenwriting
More here: https://variety.com/2018/film/opinion/william-goldman-dies-appreciation-1203030781/
Here is a variation of the above quote from the investing world:
“ Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, was interviewed in his 80s. By that time, he had 60 years of investing experience.
He was asked the best advice he had ever been given.
Bogle replied that when he was a young man just starting in an investment firm, he asked an old timer the best advice he could give him.
The old-timer replied with just three words:
Nobody Knows Nothing.”