So many investors love to listen to market gurus who forecast impending doom. At the moment, it seems it is another high tide for doom and gloom and, depending on the day, we can read articles about why we are going to enter a decade of high inflation like the 1970s, suffer from an exploding debt bomb that will ruin most of the developed world, see our social security system and pension funds collapse under the weight of a demographic catastrophe, enter another financial crisis because banks go bankrupt, or get to the brink of World War III because China invades Taiwan or Putin uses nuclear weapons. Oh, and did I mention that the US dollar is going to collapse? Today, I start a series of posts that will call out the bs in these kinds of ‘forecasts’.
Jun 21, 2023·edited Jun 21, 2023Liked by Joachim Klement
Yep. I have friends who listened to "gold gurus" since 2012 and its cost them a secure retirement while fools like I gained another 300-400 percent. They hope to be right soon, as there was a recently an exclusive "international double down warning from former NSA whistleblower" or some pink sheets "undiscovered gem that can help you survive the coming global crash"... which they shared with me ( because friends you know)
True ... especially from Jan 1934 ... in USD ... but wait in German Reichsmark? ... I haven't checked-out all your recent posts, however the effect of modern wealth illusion always comes to my mind when discussing assets & relicts.
Don't worry, be happy. Today is the exact day Greta Thunberg predicted 5 years ago that the world would end. Instead, 8 years from now we reach immortal status.
I think you are mostly right. But try making this argument for German, Russian or Japanese stock markets, and the picture looks a lot more bleak over the past 150 or so years.
The Nikkei 225 is still below 1989 levels for example. Not to speak what happened during and after World war 2.
A very US centric post, which should be mentioned as a caveat IMO.
and that is why we should diversify (i don't because as an immigrant who came to the U.S. and worked with a lot of other folks who look up to the U.S., I believe in the U.S. to continue to outpace other countries in my lifetime at least).
Yep. I have friends who listened to "gold gurus" since 2012 and its cost them a secure retirement while fools like I gained another 300-400 percent. They hope to be right soon, as there was a recently an exclusive "international double down warning from former NSA whistleblower" or some pink sheets "undiscovered gem that can help you survive the coming global crash"... which they shared with me ( because friends you know)
Tell me about it. I have people like that working in the office with me advising professional investors...
I listened to AU gurus in 2007 at 680$/Oz.
It's always a matter of participation.
I started buying gold around the same time. But arguably, the long-term return per annum is by now really miserable.
True ... especially from Jan 1934 ... in USD ... but wait in German Reichsmark? ... I haven't checked-out all your recent posts, however the effect of modern wealth illusion always comes to my mind when discussing assets & relicts.
Ok. Can you also write a little on the forecasts with the really, really, really long term consequences from a duration pov?
I.e. risk taking under immortality:
Humans will achieve immortality in eight YEARS, says former Google engineer
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11911975/Humans-achieve-immortality-eight-YEARS-says-former-Google-engineer.html
I mean, what do immortals consider volatility?
(I stumbled on the Google gentleman via a George Friedman post comment: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/georgefriedmangpf_earlier-today-our-subscribers-received-an-activity-7077000894340366336-Bvm6/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android)
Ok, that's a challenge that I think I will accept. But I have to think a little about that...
Don't worry, be happy. Today is the exact day Greta Thunberg predicted 5 years ago that the world would end. Instead, 8 years from now we reach immortal status.
Thank you Joachim. In your short piece you have restored a sense of balance to my thoughts.
Excellent piece. Looking forward to upcoming Wednesdays.
I think you are mostly right. But try making this argument for German, Russian or Japanese stock markets, and the picture looks a lot more bleak over the past 150 or so years.
The Nikkei 225 is still below 1989 levels for example. Not to speak what happened during and after World war 2.
A very US centric post, which should be mentioned as a caveat IMO.
and that is why we should diversify (i don't because as an immigrant who came to the U.S. and worked with a lot of other folks who look up to the U.S., I believe in the U.S. to continue to outpace other countries in my lifetime at least).
A most welcome dose of optimism and reality thanks.