When it comes to doom and gloom prophecies, nothing has gained as much traction in the last two years as prophecies of World War III. Or rather, any kind of prophecy of a geopolitical crisis. Throughout most of 2022, the merchants of doom and gloom were worried about Putin using nuclear weapons in Ukraine or attacking a NATO member country thus forcing the US and other NATO member states to enter a shooting war with Russia.
I humbly submit that we have all been at war, globally, since at least 2020 and arguably since long before. The vote for Brexit and then the first Trump election accelerated hostilities. This is unlike any previous war - it is 5th generation warfare, incorporating globalist methods that are aimed at the rest of humanity incorporating the psychological, biological and spiritual. See for example 'The citizens guide to fifth generation warfare' by Michael Flynn and Boone Cutler, and '180 degrees: unlearn the lies you've been taught to believe' by Feargus O'Connor Greenwood. These are clearly dark and unsettling times, but free and honest humanity will prevail - as it always does.
I think that this post (and series) is a good reminder that the perceived risks (or those with the loudest voices) are often the one's less likely to occur. One caveat that I think that your post leaves out is that your analysis has been from the viewpoint of the USA/UK. Imagine what the Russian investors experience has been or that of German investors during the 1940s. Geopolitical events rarely matter - provided you are on the winning side.
whenever an investor (usually retail) worries about wars, I show them the chart of the German stock market leading up to 1944. It performed quite well until Stalingrad.
Ugly fact: stock markets generally like wars. Buy when the cannons are firing.
Good post. I read your geopolitical risk e-book back when you published it and enjoyed it very much. Here's a self-promotion for my own geopolitics-oriented site, where I do not prophesy military doom: thegeographicinvestor.com
Thanks, looking forward to your next piece tomorrow (I don't know how you do it!),
If [geo] political risk is uncorrelated with S&P stock returns, this would seem to imply that much of the handwringing about adding 'country risk premiums' to investments in emerging / developing / basket case markets is misguided.*
* Using [roughly] the S&P as a proxy for a truly global index.
I humbly submit that we have all been at war, globally, since at least 2020 and arguably since long before. The vote for Brexit and then the first Trump election accelerated hostilities. This is unlike any previous war - it is 5th generation warfare, incorporating globalist methods that are aimed at the rest of humanity incorporating the psychological, biological and spiritual. See for example 'The citizens guide to fifth generation warfare' by Michael Flynn and Boone Cutler, and '180 degrees: unlearn the lies you've been taught to believe' by Feargus O'Connor Greenwood. These are clearly dark and unsettling times, but free and honest humanity will prevail - as it always does.
I think that this post (and series) is a good reminder that the perceived risks (or those with the loudest voices) are often the one's less likely to occur. One caveat that I think that your post leaves out is that your analysis has been from the viewpoint of the USA/UK. Imagine what the Russian investors experience has been or that of German investors during the 1940s. Geopolitical events rarely matter - provided you are on the winning side.
whenever an investor (usually retail) worries about wars, I show them the chart of the German stock market leading up to 1944. It performed quite well until Stalingrad.
Ugly fact: stock markets generally like wars. Buy when the cannons are firing.
Good post. I read your geopolitical risk e-book back when you published it and enjoyed it very much. Here's a self-promotion for my own geopolitics-oriented site, where I do not prophesy military doom: thegeographicinvestor.com
Thanks, looking forward to your next piece tomorrow (I don't know how you do it!),
Joseph
Would you rank ray dalio among the cassandras?
Is Adam tooze a doomer? I don't think he is.
And well it doesn't matter until you find yourself on the wrong side of the conflict. Imagine being Russian now, you are stuck with roubles.
If [geo] political risk is uncorrelated with S&P stock returns, this would seem to imply that much of the handwringing about adding 'country risk premiums' to investments in emerging / developing / basket case markets is misguided.*
* Using [roughly] the S&P as a proxy for a truly global index.