Obviously, we have been preoccupied with two major crises and their fallout over the last 13 years, so we may be forgiven if we lost track of another crisis that is looming in the background: the global retirement crisis. In 1995, the World Bank published a
I enjoyed this post, thanks. Unfortunately (or fortunately), Covid-19 has helped solve some of the funding crisis. Will be interesting to see in a couple of years what the actuarial revisions look like.
Given the advancements in AI and its adjunct application in Genomics and personalized therapeutics, what is the new over/under when baby boomers or Gen-X might actually stop drawing (ie. when do we die) from entitlements? I appreciate the presentation about uptick in payroll taxes or SSA contributions but a) the projected contributors are not going to increase as fast as the beneficiaries as longevity increases b) the increasing base of elderly voters will pose an interesting new dynamic as representatives realize this political tsunami (+10K retirees every day jus in USA c) elderly treatments are bloody expensive and is looking like a hockey stick. Just check out the pricing on Aduhelm (aducanumab) which the US FDA approved for Alzheimer's and it is not even that great - well...at least I heard the Euro panel will not approve it. But some other similar wonder drugs will be - some cancer treatment using modern gene-editing etc. will be wanted/needed by the elderly population but the pharmas will price very high to "recoup" their costs.
In other words, approaching this old, recurring problem with the same old ideas will likely not be sufficient. A new, integrated and holistic approach is worth exploring now. Otherwise, the SSA will just look like the mother of Ponzi schemes.
For example - the high expense on very big data and ML training in AI for more modern drug discovery should probably be mitigated by some nationalized R&D AI cloud or maybe even EU-region-R&D and certain industries, like pharmaceuticals, will work in that space with the different agencies like the FDAs so there is a natural cap/subsidy on their R&D cost that will eventually translate to savings/accessibility to treatments. Certain creative processes by each pharma lab will still be their own, but the big obvious, common costly infrastructure should probably be footed by some SS special fund or some nationalized resource (a database of genomic sequences, a data lake of molecules and proteins, etc.) that would allow more open, yet more competitive solution providers. And at least the SS and pension funds should own enough of these big-ticket expenditures of the elderly so it lessens the sting of the draws or at least allow a voice on the board when positioning the new medicine. Related policies to the funding side, such as the working visa quota for the developed countries, should be a function of the longevity and projected needs of the dependent population, etc.
Look, my dental and medical costs IRL get more expensive much more than the CPI. So increasing with COLA the monthly entitlements is a palliative, not a solution Unless a more holistic approach is done, this gap will become a class dichotomy. Those with other money will have access to better treatment and live longer and those who live longer will tax the benefits system longer. Those who do not will die earlier (lessening the fund crisis temporarily), until the next batch of retirees, wisen up and votes/recalls out of office every sedentary representative or a horrible scene on the streets when all the gramps and grannies get "woke" or some other nefarious scene that looks like a sequel of "Cocoon" the movie. Ugh
Crisis? What crisis?
I enjoyed this post, thanks. Unfortunately (or fortunately), Covid-19 has helped solve some of the funding crisis. Will be interesting to see in a couple of years what the actuarial revisions look like.
Given the advancements in AI and its adjunct application in Genomics and personalized therapeutics, what is the new over/under when baby boomers or Gen-X might actually stop drawing (ie. when do we die) from entitlements? I appreciate the presentation about uptick in payroll taxes or SSA contributions but a) the projected contributors are not going to increase as fast as the beneficiaries as longevity increases b) the increasing base of elderly voters will pose an interesting new dynamic as representatives realize this political tsunami (+10K retirees every day jus in USA c) elderly treatments are bloody expensive and is looking like a hockey stick. Just check out the pricing on Aduhelm (aducanumab) which the US FDA approved for Alzheimer's and it is not even that great - well...at least I heard the Euro panel will not approve it. But some other similar wonder drugs will be - some cancer treatment using modern gene-editing etc. will be wanted/needed by the elderly population but the pharmas will price very high to "recoup" their costs.
In other words, approaching this old, recurring problem with the same old ideas will likely not be sufficient. A new, integrated and holistic approach is worth exploring now. Otherwise, the SSA will just look like the mother of Ponzi schemes.
For example - the high expense on very big data and ML training in AI for more modern drug discovery should probably be mitigated by some nationalized R&D AI cloud or maybe even EU-region-R&D and certain industries, like pharmaceuticals, will work in that space with the different agencies like the FDAs so there is a natural cap/subsidy on their R&D cost that will eventually translate to savings/accessibility to treatments. Certain creative processes by each pharma lab will still be their own, but the big obvious, common costly infrastructure should probably be footed by some SS special fund or some nationalized resource (a database of genomic sequences, a data lake of molecules and proteins, etc.) that would allow more open, yet more competitive solution providers. And at least the SS and pension funds should own enough of these big-ticket expenditures of the elderly so it lessens the sting of the draws or at least allow a voice on the board when positioning the new medicine. Related policies to the funding side, such as the working visa quota for the developed countries, should be a function of the longevity and projected needs of the dependent population, etc.
Look, my dental and medical costs IRL get more expensive much more than the CPI. So increasing with COLA the monthly entitlements is a palliative, not a solution Unless a more holistic approach is done, this gap will become a class dichotomy. Those with other money will have access to better treatment and live longer and those who live longer will tax the benefits system longer. Those who do not will die earlier (lessening the fund crisis temporarily), until the next batch of retirees, wisen up and votes/recalls out of office every sedentary representative or a horrible scene on the streets when all the gramps and grannies get "woke" or some other nefarious scene that looks like a sequel of "Cocoon" the movie. Ugh