Hi Joachim, for a couple of decades I covered Aerospace & Defence on the sell-side, so I probably think that I know it all! One thing is just that the Kiel Institute's table of the years to replenish Germany's military equipment inventory is potentially a little bit misleading, if anyone interprets it as implying that production rates are too low and can simply be ramped up. There are big differences with different types of platform, especially high-ticket, high-complexity ones like combat aircraft compared to, for example, artillery, in terms of planned successor platforms, build cycle times, available production slots, economic production rate plans, and production lead times. So many factors play into the rate at which military equipment inventory can or should be replenished, even without adjusting for the increased capability and greater military effects generated by newer generations of platforms.
I 100% agree. In my article, I mention that you cannot simply ramp up production. Rheinmetall, for example, has for the past three years borrowed workers and factories from Continental to expand capacity. On top of that, long-cycle weapons like jets or ships take so many years to ramp up and then accelerate as they are being rolled out. So, the Kiel data is just a rough estimate.
However the, apparently soon-to-be-idle, automotive sector in Germany might be partly repurposed to the defence sector (a sector which is likely exempt from those pesky emissions standards).
It feels like Germany holds the key. It has to change its stance, the de facto leader has atoned so well from its sins and has tried so hard to become a minion geopolitically that perhaps it's time to rise up again.
I agree and I am glad about the news of a loosening debt brake on defence and a €500bn infrastructure fund. Note that the US press says it is a €500bn defence fund. It is not. The €500bn is only for infrastructure over the next 10 years. No concern ete numbers in defence as far as I can see.
Hi Joachim, for a couple of decades I covered Aerospace & Defence on the sell-side, so I probably think that I know it all! One thing is just that the Kiel Institute's table of the years to replenish Germany's military equipment inventory is potentially a little bit misleading, if anyone interprets it as implying that production rates are too low and can simply be ramped up. There are big differences with different types of platform, especially high-ticket, high-complexity ones like combat aircraft compared to, for example, artillery, in terms of planned successor platforms, build cycle times, available production slots, economic production rate plans, and production lead times. So many factors play into the rate at which military equipment inventory can or should be replenished, even without adjusting for the increased capability and greater military effects generated by newer generations of platforms.
I 100% agree. In my article, I mention that you cannot simply ramp up production. Rheinmetall, for example, has for the past three years borrowed workers and factories from Continental to expand capacity. On top of that, long-cycle weapons like jets or ships take so many years to ramp up and then accelerate as they are being rolled out. So, the Kiel data is just a rough estimate.
Correct.
However the, apparently soon-to-be-idle, automotive sector in Germany might be partly repurposed to the defence sector (a sector which is likely exempt from those pesky emissions standards).
It feels like Germany holds the key. It has to change its stance, the de facto leader has atoned so well from its sins and has tried so hard to become a minion geopolitically that perhaps it's time to rise up again.
I agree and I am glad about the news of a loosening debt brake on defence and a €500bn infrastructure fund. Note that the US press says it is a €500bn defence fund. It is not. The €500bn is only for infrastructure over the next 10 years. No concern ete numbers in defence as far as I can see.
The 2004 and 2021 stocks data seams to have been inverted in the Kiel Institute's table for the Main battle tank and Infantry fighting vehicle lines.