I love this second order effect stuff. In my sim and very distant past I interviewed for a job at a firm which, among other things, built war game models for… a well known government. They demoed one of their systems, and the crusty old ex general in the room then said “looks good, right? Well — on never rely on this or any other model on any account. A model will never win you the war because the second order effects will always catch you out. At best a model might help not to lose the war. But usually their best value is to discipline your thought process a bit.”
It's the old (and true) adage that for every 1 result you foresee as the outcome of a decision, assume there are at least 5 that you haven't thought of. I was part-timing as the general contractor (and budget manager) for a small house build (relatives) and ran head on into this concept. We bought a house plan after much deliberation among all stakeholders that suited everyone. Then the "why don't we change this?" ridiculousity started. We don't change it because there was a team of architects that designed this plan to ensure that everything could co-exist sympatico in the house. Every change means a cascade of decisions have to be made and then a new consolidated plan drawn up. Thankfully, we stuck to the plan. Don't change things unless there is a driving reason to do so.
I love this second order effect stuff. In my sim and very distant past I interviewed for a job at a firm which, among other things, built war game models for… a well known government. They demoed one of their systems, and the crusty old ex general in the room then said “looks good, right? Well — on never rely on this or any other model on any account. A model will never win you the war because the second order effects will always catch you out. At best a model might help not to lose the war. But usually their best value is to discipline your thought process a bit.”
It's the old (and true) adage that for every 1 result you foresee as the outcome of a decision, assume there are at least 5 that you haven't thought of. I was part-timing as the general contractor (and budget manager) for a small house build (relatives) and ran head on into this concept. We bought a house plan after much deliberation among all stakeholders that suited everyone. Then the "why don't we change this?" ridiculousity started. We don't change it because there was a team of architects that designed this plan to ensure that everything could co-exist sympatico in the house. Every change means a cascade of decisions have to be made and then a new consolidated plan drawn up. Thankfully, we stuck to the plan. Don't change things unless there is a driving reason to do so.