Every four years, I write a ‘research note’ that has many more readers than anything else I publish. Today, I published the next edition of these notes. It is the forecast for the FIFA World Cup this year in Qatar. It has become a tradition to make these forecasts to show that economists have a sense of humour (they don’t) and can actually forecast things that matter (they can’t). Or rather, most of them can’t. I developed a proprietary econometric model in 2014 to forecast the winner of the previous two World Cups and so far, my track record is 100% accurate. Clearly, nothing can go wrong in making another forecast.