Could it be the changing of the guard.African nations rising and the old guard slipping. The days of total football gone, Cruyff and Ajax from the early 70s.
Everybody plays in the premier league now and that could really lift the standards in their home countries,and give kids something to aim for . When I worked in Germany the standard of the German league was high,it seems to have slipped since then. Perhaps Borussia Dortmund and their high energy football of around 5 to 10 years ago was the peak of German football,a swarm of bees coming at you non stop.My German days were in the mid/ late 1970s.
I thought Korean football would advance a bit more after the days of Cha Buhm ( correct spelling?) flying down the wing for Eintracht Frankfurt,I think football is in the 3rd generation of his family in Korea.
Japan I really like,20 or 25 years to go from learning to being very good.10 years perhaps until they are in the upper echelons.
Technically and tactically, the Japanese are already pretty good. They have some fast players too. They don't tend to have much size and are limited by their talent pool (and less-than-replacement-rate birthrates are NOT helpful), however. More crucially, they don't send out a lot of emigrants who's kids grow up in Europe, play soccer/football all day, and get trained at European academies (baseball is still the #1 sport in Japan). So they can't follow the template that Morocco (and other African nations) have followed for success.
In generally, poor demographics are definitely a concern for all of East Asia and Europe even when it comes to soccer. European countries almost need immigration for sustained success even in soccer/football.
But isn't the point that no matter which model we build, it's unlikely to be one that can make an accurate forecast over a long enough set of iterations.
It was really fun to follow you becoming 'pop' in Brazil because of your model after reading your substack for the last 3 years, herr Klement! All the best!
Japan were unlucky to face Brazil so soon. However if anything they got lucky scoring on a low probability shot. Brazil dominated for almost the whole game and in almost every statistic. Should have been a routine 2-0 win.
Morocco had 70% possession, 1.40 xG to the Netherlands' 0.23, eleven shots to six, five on target to two, and Hakimi hit the crossbar when the game was still scoreless. Verbruggen made three or four saves that had no right to be saves, and the only Dutch goal came from a counter-attack against the complete run of play. The Netherlands didn't lose a tight game. They survived 90 minutes of being outplayed and then lost on penalties because they'd used all their luck staying in the match.
We priced Morocco as a genuine contender in our World Cup coverage before the tournament started, and the data from this match is exactly why. Semi-finalists in 2022, a deeper and more experienced squad now, 70-30 possession in a knockout game against a side people had winning the whole tournament. This wasn't an upset. Calling it one tells you more about the person making the bracket than about the team that won the game. Germany to Paraguay was a shock. Morocco beating a Netherlands side they outplayed for 120 minutes is a correction, and the xG confirms it wasn't even close.
Well I think in general westerners and particularly europeans will frame things from a western/European point of view. Euro-centrism isn't just present in foreign policy or economics but touches all aspects of life. It's a fairly evident when you listen to most post-match commentary where 80% of airtime is about Netherlands and how they lost this, how they are going through an identity crisis, their history with penalty shoot outs etc. and that somehow they have played better and lost when the data shows very much that the Moroccan team at least on the margin was the better team in this match.
Please, Mr. Klement... Just your internal feeling for the two finalists now? We are all fans after all and I am enjoying your predictions. Will they be France and Argentina?
My gut feeling says Sopain vs France and Brazil vs Argentina in the semifonals. Then I would say Spain vs Argentina in the finals, but honestly, it could also be France and Brazil. I have a hard time separating these four teams.
Could it be the changing of the guard.African nations rising and the old guard slipping. The days of total football gone, Cruyff and Ajax from the early 70s.
Everybody plays in the premier league now and that could really lift the standards in their home countries,and give kids something to aim for . When I worked in Germany the standard of the German league was high,it seems to have slipped since then. Perhaps Borussia Dortmund and their high energy football of around 5 to 10 years ago was the peak of German football,a swarm of bees coming at you non stop.My German days were in the mid/ late 1970s.
I thought Korean football would advance a bit more after the days of Cha Buhm ( correct spelling?) flying down the wing for Eintracht Frankfurt,I think football is in the 3rd generation of his family in Korea.
Japan I really like,20 or 25 years to go from learning to being very good.10 years perhaps until they are in the upper echelons.
Economic models ( drums fingers on table):-)
Technically and tactically, the Japanese are already pretty good. They have some fast players too. They don't tend to have much size and are limited by their talent pool (and less-than-replacement-rate birthrates are NOT helpful), however. More crucially, they don't send out a lot of emigrants who's kids grow up in Europe, play soccer/football all day, and get trained at European academies (baseball is still the #1 sport in Japan). So they can't follow the template that Morocco (and other African nations) have followed for success.
In generally, poor demographics are definitely a concern for all of East Asia and Europe even when it comes to soccer. European countries almost need immigration for sustained success even in soccer/football.
Great article; thank you !
Give us, another team that u think could win the World Cup. I am sure u have one in mind.
Or e mail me privately terramartinez@hotmail.com
We all believe in your capacity
Thank you for not including France in your predictions
I can still provide an update if you like 🤣
Will the model be revised?
Not sure, yet. I won't revise it for this World Cup. And I won't do another forecast until the World Cup 2030.
It would be interesting. I think the new 16-avos rule exponentiated your mistakes.
Yes, I was afraid of that, because in a group stage you can slip up. In a knockout match, if you slip up, you lose in a penalty shootout
But isn't the point that no matter which model we build, it's unlikely to be one that can make an accurate forecast over a long enough set of iterations.
It was really fun to follow you becoming 'pop' in Brazil because of your model after reading your substack for the last 3 years, herr Klement! All the best!
Japan were unlucky to face Brazil so soon. However if anything they got lucky scoring on a low probability shot. Brazil dominated for almost the whole game and in almost every statistic. Should have been a routine 2-0 win.
Morocco had 70% possession, 1.40 xG to the Netherlands' 0.23, eleven shots to six, five on target to two, and Hakimi hit the crossbar when the game was still scoreless. Verbruggen made three or four saves that had no right to be saves, and the only Dutch goal came from a counter-attack against the complete run of play. The Netherlands didn't lose a tight game. They survived 90 minutes of being outplayed and then lost on penalties because they'd used all their luck staying in the match.
We priced Morocco as a genuine contender in our World Cup coverage before the tournament started, and the data from this match is exactly why. Semi-finalists in 2022, a deeper and more experienced squad now, 70-30 possession in a knockout game against a side people had winning the whole tournament. This wasn't an upset. Calling it one tells you more about the person making the bracket than about the team that won the game. Germany to Paraguay was a shock. Morocco beating a Netherlands side they outplayed for 120 minutes is a correction, and the xG confirms it wasn't even close.
Well I think in general westerners and particularly europeans will frame things from a western/European point of view. Euro-centrism isn't just present in foreign policy or economics but touches all aspects of life. It's a fairly evident when you listen to most post-match commentary where 80% of airtime is about Netherlands and how they lost this, how they are going through an identity crisis, their history with penalty shoot outs etc. and that somehow they have played better and lost when the data shows very much that the Moroccan team at least on the margin was the better team in this match.
Please, Mr. Klement... Just your internal feeling for the two finalists now? We are all fans after all and I am enjoying your predictions. Will they be France and Argentina?
My gut feeling says Sopain vs France and Brazil vs Argentina in the semifonals. Then I would say Spain vs Argentina in the finals, but honestly, it could also be France and Brazil. I have a hard time separating these four teams.