Gutted…

Eventually, after 12 years and being lucky in three World Cups, I ran out of luck.

I set out to prove that economic models are not as accurate as many people believe and finally, I was proven right 😜.

But the manner in which I ran out of luck was brutal, I can tell you.

On Sunday, I said in my post that I could come to the office on Tuesday with serious egg on my face if Japan, Germany, and the Netherlands all lose within 12 hours. This morning, I am sitting on my desk with a poster taped to it saying “No Refunds” and a Dutch flag at half mast…

If the last night shows anything, it is how unpredictable knock-out matches are. Every one of the matches could easily have gone the other way, particularly the penalty shootouts.

So, first and foremost, congratulations to Brazil (with a special shoutout to Neymar Jr) and its incredible fans. After last night I dare to believe as well. Tà liberado acreditar.

But congratulations also to Paraguay and Morocco for pulling off major upsets.

Meanwhile, to the Japanese national football team and all Japanese fans: I am sorry you lost, but you showed the world what a mighty team and people you are. Your football team was the best example for a great collective working together to achieve things most people would clearly have thought impossible. You deserve the respect of football fans everywhere.

To the Dutch national team and all the Dutch people, I apologise if I gave you false hope but boy you were unlucky. Just think of Verbruggen’s ‘almost safe’ in the penalty shootout.

This match was the cruelest of losses but I know this team can win a major trophy. Maybe at the Euros in two years, but I assure you, I am not going to make any forecasts for that tournament.

When the tournament started people laughed at me and others who said the Netherlands could win this tournament. By the end of the group stages the Dutch were mentioned by experts as the fourth team to watch next to France, Spain and Argentina.

I hope the Dutch people know that they can be proud of their national football team. I am not Dutch but heck, I am proud of this team.

And that is more than I can say about my own national team.

As you can imagine, my mailbox is being flooded this morning. Half the emails are people gloating about my failure (which I fully own), the other half are emails asking me if I will retire my model.

Are you kidding me? I am a professional economist and investment strategist. In investments we know that we make false predictions all the time. As the saying goes: to make money, you have to be right six out of eleven times.

So far, I have been right three out of four times, so rest assured, I will be back in four years with a new set of forecasts. But hopefully, by then people will have learned about my main message that luck is the most important factor, and no model or system can make perfect forecasts. All we can hope for is to be right more often than we are wrong.

Football matches are inherently unpredictable, which is why watching football (or any sport for that matter) is so much fun.

And as long as this is taken as a bit of fun and entertainment, I will continue making my World Cup forecasts.

So, enjoy the World Cup and thank you all for the fun memories of the last couple of weeks. 😃