Forecasting the economy is hard enough already, but when it comes to economic developments, there is one variable that is even harder to forecast than all the others: Debt/GDP.
Interesting.. how do they usually make these forecasts? A simple regression / boosting tree should pick up on this `prediction x 2` factor if done correctly
Also, wonder if politicians themselves would have better estimates haha
Interesting.. how do they usually make these forecasts? A simple regression / boosting tree should pick up on this `prediction x 2` factor if done correctly
Also, wonder if politicians themselves would have better estimates haha
The problem is that the factor 2 isn’t constant over time. It varies depending on the government and the cycle. So regression analysis doesn’t help.