A couple of weeks ago, I used a study by Edward Leamer to show that a recession in the US in the next 12 months is highly likely. Similarly, in the UK and Europe, a recession is likely as well. The upcoming data for third quarter GDP growth is probably going to be still slightly positive, but weak and it could well be negative. Since the last two recessions (the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and the pandemic in 2020) were extremely deep, many – especially younger – investors fear it is going to be another deep recession. Well, I don’t think so.
Thanks Joachim for your insightful analysis. Here in Australia, according to tradingeconomics.com our household debt to GDP ratio is sitting at 118%. Should this give me cause for concern?
Thanks Joachim for your insightful analysis. Here in Australia, according to tradingeconomics.com our household debt to GDP ratio is sitting at 118%. Should this give me cause for concern?