One of the things I admire most in people is when they are able to change their opinions based on new evidence, take responsibility for past mistakes, and move on. Based on that description alone, you can imagine what I think of politicians… But in the world of economics and investing, some concepts have become articles of faith and dogma as well. One such article of faith is that increasing central bank balance sheets (i.e. printing money) must lead to inflation. And even though the last twelve years in Europe and the United States have shown that all that money printing has not only not led to inflation but if anything had deflationary consequences similar to Japan, some economists and investors insist that the monetary stimulus of 2020 will inevitably tip the scales towards rising inflation.
Another Argument that is sort of broken; "Low-interest rates will lead to more productive investment".
For one it did lead to a massive increase in debt. But was it used for productive investments?
While there are mega-successful anecdotes in technology (US-SaaS companies) overall it doesn't look like European companies did so amazingly well on productivity.
I don't see for example how the next-gen engineers would be exited to build gasoline cars?
Hello, low-interest rate policy has been going on for 10y!
Germany sacrificed its solar panel business to the Chinese for a trade deal 🤷♂️
I guess C19 will inspire many to go to medicine but in Europe that is already a major expense for the governments and (I know it sounds terrible) there must be a limit were increasing life expectancy becomes more of a burden than a productive use of resources.
I assume you looked at where the money in the 7y EU budget would go to?
If the EU wants to be the big player it sais it is those numbers were peanuts.
Another Argument that is sort of broken; "Low-interest rates will lead to more productive investment".
For one it did lead to a massive increase in debt. But was it used for productive investments?
While there are mega-successful anecdotes in technology (US-SaaS companies) overall it doesn't look like European companies did so amazingly well on productivity.
I don't see for example how the next-gen engineers would be exited to build gasoline cars?
Hello, low-interest rate policy has been going on for 10y!
Germany sacrificed its solar panel business to the Chinese for a trade deal 🤷♂️
I guess C19 will inspire many to go to medicine but in Europe that is already a major expense for the governments and (I know it sounds terrible) there must be a limit were increasing life expectancy becomes more of a burden than a productive use of resources.
I assume you looked at where the money in the 7y EU budget would go to?
If the EU wants to be the big player it sais it is those numbers were peanuts.