Inferring recession probabilities from the yield curve
klementoninvesting.substack.com
Yesterday, we showed that inversions of the US Treasury yield curve are an imperfect but reasonable indicator for future recessions. Typically, the yield curve (as measured by the difference between 10-year and 2-year yields) inverts about one year before the onset of a recession, though lead times can vary dramatically.
Inferring recession probabilities from the yield curve
Inferring recession probabilities from the…
Inferring recession probabilities from the yield curve
Yesterday, we showed that inversions of the US Treasury yield curve are an imperfect but reasonable indicator for future recessions. Typically, the yield curve (as measured by the difference between 10-year and 2-year yields) inverts about one year before the onset of a recession, though lead times can vary dramatically.