It is the start of a new year and once again, the press is full of reports on the share price forecasts for the coming year by strategists and equity analysts everywhere. Time then to take another look at the usefulness of these forecasts. Bloomberg asks a bunch of strategists every month where they expect major stock market indices to end at the end of the calendar year. At the same time, stock analysts submit their target prices for the stocks they cover to Bloomberg which allows Bloomberg to aggregate these individual share price targets into a bottom-up aggregate for an index. The table below shows the latest forecasts for the major US and European indices both by analysts (bottom-up) and strategists (top-down).
"Don’t bother with share price or index targets. You are wasting your time because nobody knows where the index or individual share prices will be at the end of this year. This is not what analyst and strategist research is about. Their analysis is about identifying the major driver of markets and then providing guidance on risks and opportunities, nothing more and nothing less."
Visually, the predictions versus actuals have been way off, especially over the last ten years, with only coming close on two occasions, and usually by the more positive analysts, although neither group are that great! Suggest y'all go out for some beer and darts and bring back the dart board to summarize! Take care & enjoy!
"Don’t bother with share price or index targets. You are wasting your time because nobody knows where the index or individual share prices will be at the end of this year. This is not what analyst and strategist research is about. Their analysis is about identifying the major driver of markets and then providing guidance on risks and opportunities, nothing more and nothing less."
Couldn't agree more
At the annual fair there's a woman in a tent who tells fortunes. For £5 she predicts you love-life, health and the birth of you next child.
Her day job is as a stock stratagist.
I'm looking forward to visiting her again this year.
Visually, the predictions versus actuals have been way off, especially over the last ten years, with only coming close on two occasions, and usually by the more positive analysts, although neither group are that great! Suggest y'all go out for some beer and darts and bring back the dart board to summarize! Take care & enjoy!
Well, darts is a game that requires skill. I think reading tea leaves or rabbit bones more accurately describes what we do. :-)