I like to tell people who are concerned about the large amount of debt we have floating around in the global economy that if they want to know how the future looks like, they have to look at Japan.
This ING study came out today. As a citizen of a part-time work loving country - NL, we seem to be wanting to eat a lot of cake in the future as young middle class men of the left of center breed now confess to also want to work part time, like the majority of NL women do. One of the (new) reasons is that it 'helps to save the planet from climate collapse' i.e. 'my-personal-degrowth-solution that benefits me and the planet', since obviously the gov is expected to supply the same if not higher level of service and convenience to its citizens...
I found it an interesting study and it may also hold some additional value for your thinking on the future EU economy:
'This is the real reason why the eurozone is suffering from labour shortages'
The drop in average hours worked in the eurozone is one of the biggest and somewhat overlooked shocks caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. We think this is the main reason for current labour shortages. This drives down potential output and causes inflationary pressure, which begs the question: can this trend be reversed?
Eurozone labour market: at a glance:
Average hours worked per employed person are still 2.2% lower than they were in the pre-pandemic years. This has a very large impact on the labour market.
We argue that labour shortages are in large part not cyclical or ageing-related, but mostly stem from lower average hours worked per person employed.
Because of this, 3.8 million people are now in work which would not have been necessary if people worked the same hours they did in the years before the pandemic, and the eurozone would likely not experience meaningful wage pressures.
This trend in lower average hours worked is observed in most sectors and for both men and women and across all age groups.
It is hard to fully account for the reasons, but increased sick leave, labour hoarding and some compositional effects, such as the increased entry of women and younger workers into the labour market, seem to be playing a role.
If there is a rise in the average hours worked, this could mean that labour shortages ease and wage pressures moderate more quickly than expected.
If average hours worked remain as they are, this lowers growth potential and makes labour shortages and wage pressures more structural
Policymakers would benefit from a better understanding of this phenomenon as any further developments in the average hours worked trend will have significant implications for monetary policy, unemployment and economic activity moving forward.
This ING study came out today. As a citizen of a part-time work loving country - NL, we seem to be wanting to eat a lot of cake in the future as young middle class men of the left of center breed now confess to also want to work part time, like the majority of NL women do. One of the (new) reasons is that it 'helps to save the planet from climate collapse' i.e. 'my-personal-degrowth-solution that benefits me and the planet', since obviously the gov is expected to supply the same if not higher level of service and convenience to its citizens...
I found it an interesting study and it may also hold some additional value for your thinking on the future EU economy:
'This is the real reason why the eurozone is suffering from labour shortages'
https://think.ing.com/articles/the-real-reason-why-eurozone-suffering-from-labour-shortages-23/
The drop in average hours worked in the eurozone is one of the biggest and somewhat overlooked shocks caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. We think this is the main reason for current labour shortages. This drives down potential output and causes inflationary pressure, which begs the question: can this trend be reversed?
Eurozone labour market: at a glance:
Average hours worked per employed person are still 2.2% lower than they were in the pre-pandemic years. This has a very large impact on the labour market.
We argue that labour shortages are in large part not cyclical or ageing-related, but mostly stem from lower average hours worked per person employed.
Because of this, 3.8 million people are now in work which would not have been necessary if people worked the same hours they did in the years before the pandemic, and the eurozone would likely not experience meaningful wage pressures.
This trend in lower average hours worked is observed in most sectors and for both men and women and across all age groups.
It is hard to fully account for the reasons, but increased sick leave, labour hoarding and some compositional effects, such as the increased entry of women and younger workers into the labour market, seem to be playing a role.
If there is a rise in the average hours worked, this could mean that labour shortages ease and wage pressures moderate more quickly than expected.
If average hours worked remain as they are, this lowers growth potential and makes labour shortages and wage pressures more structural
Policymakers would benefit from a better understanding of this phenomenon as any further developments in the average hours worked trend will have significant implications for monetary policy, unemployment and economic activity moving forward.