Statistical shenanigans or: Sell on the rumour, buy on the news
klementoninvesting.substack.com
The first half of 2022 has been dominated by high inflation, central banks hiking rates, and the fear of a new recession. The big advantage for US investors is that they don’t have to rely on some superficial metric like two successive quarters with negative GDP growth to determine when a recession starts and ends. They can rely on the official business cycle dates determined by the NBER. But should investors follow the announcements of the NBER in their portfolios?
Statistical shenanigans or: Sell on the rumour, buy on the news
Statistical shenanigans or: Sell on the…
Statistical shenanigans or: Sell on the rumour, buy on the news
The first half of 2022 has been dominated by high inflation, central banks hiking rates, and the fear of a new recession. The big advantage for US investors is that they don’t have to rely on some superficial metric like two successive quarters with negative GDP growth to determine when a recession starts and ends. They can rely on the official business cycle dates determined by the NBER. But should investors follow the announcements of the NBER in their portfolios?