1 Comment

I think you have a correct but narrow analysis here. China blockading shipping in the SCS may have no direct impact on China, but as a significant escalation of its sovereign claim it would invite reprisals that do have an impact. And there are many tools at the disposal of the US and other aligned regional powers which would be of greater impact than a response to China within the SCS alone, but still be a long way short of military action. I think you're right to expect that a Biden administration would be more measured, but it would also be much more likely to have wide multilateral engagement and support than anything from the volatile, dilettante-infested Trump administration.

Expand full comment