I have written earlier in the year about the challenge the energy transition faces in terms of geopolitical dependency. Many of the metals we need to build windmills, energy storage facilities, EVs, etc. are coming from a handful of countries. And let’s face it, these countries are typically not very stable or particularly friendly to European and North American importers. But have we thought about comparing these geopolitical dependencies to our dependencies in fossil fuels?
"The United States, Canada and Australia are truly the lucky countries because they have their own supply of fossil fuels and very little import dependence. For them, transitioning to renewables doesn’t reduce geopolitical dependency but may increase it."
Curious as to why you think it might increase geopolitical risk?
Good article but the name "transition metals" is nothing to do with the energy transition, it's named after the transition from elements with one full shell of electrons to a new electron shell
This is hilarious (of course, it wouldn’t be the first time the IMF produced something hilarious). Anyway, apart from the west i.e. the US having promoted instability in large swaths of the world, accompanied by hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths (‘but they lived in unstable countries so they would have been killed anyway probably’), this:
While the west is doing its utmost to become even more dependent on foreign commodities - on a truly monumental scale, but energy trans believers do not seem to realize that. (If you’re a progressive try Simon Michaux, a conservative try Mark P Mills) - at the same time the west is more antagonistic than ever post 1991. Dividing the world into people like us and those not like us (automatically they’re against us).
The west completely, totally and fundamentally relies on Chinese mineral- and rare earth mining and processing. That includes the US defense industry: your typical US destroyer or sub needs 5 tons of Chinese produced and processed rare earths. F35s (hello Scholz) don’t fly without Chinese input…
As the west fell at the feet of intellectual giants like Al Gore and Greta Thunberg, the Chinese bought stakes in mines across the world. They seem to still understand what ‘interests’ mean…We consider that foul play these days.
But before the above juxtaposition of the west vs the rest begins to show its real world consequences (to westerners the real world seems to be an ever more mysterious place, intellectually to be avoided and physically mainly suited for holidays - and the corresponding CO2- guilt), i hope the hopeful have also witnessed one wind project after another being canceled now that, as QE ended and interest rates rose, the real price is becoming apparent - a bit. I hope everyone sees renewables companies and suppliers having significant economic troubles.
I hope it’s known that those nations with the highest penetration of renewables (globally it’s still only 4% or so, at a cost of 4 T) have the highest energy prices (but let’s blame foreign autocrats for western voters turning angry, not home-politics by the well-off).
Everywhere in Europe elec grids are at their max. And this was predicted years ago since it’s not difficult to forecast that adding renewables means adding instability (even the Guardian wrote pieces). Yet no politico acted and no media outlet made a fuss. You don’t do that when the fate of the planet (All hail The Planet)) apparently is at stake. (Nor was there a push for nuclear…). Let alone a push for common sense and realism.
Now we’re here:
Renewable energy projects worth billions stuck on hold
Some new solar and wind sites are waiting up to 10 to 15 years to be connected because of a lack of capacity in the system - known as the "grid".
Silence of the Grid Experts by Planning Engineer Russell Schussler
There are many reasons why grid experts within the electric utility industry have not spoken out when unrealistic “green” goals were being developed and promoted over the last 20 years or so. A more open debate during this period might have helped provide a more realistic foundation for future development. This posting describes some reasons as to why at the corporate level electric utilities did not speak out more in defense of grid reliability. Collectively these factors tended to eliminate grid experts from playing any role in the development of policies impacting the grid.
For those who like buckets of cold water, just today German Lars Schernikau - you may want to follow him on LinkedIn, just like Michael Liebreich - wrote a reality check on Germany’s electrification. (With more links in the first comment a.o. to Mark P Mills).
Myth: Solar and wind are helping save our grid from extreme heat.
Truth: Preferences for Solar and Wind have made our grid embarrassingly vulnerable to heat waves—and cold snaps—that a fossil-fueled grid could easily manage.
"The United States, Canada and Australia are truly the lucky countries because they have their own supply of fossil fuels and very little import dependence. For them, transitioning to renewables doesn’t reduce geopolitical dependency but may increase it."
Curious as to why you think it might increase geopolitical risk?
Good article but the name "transition metals" is nothing to do with the energy transition, it's named after the transition from elements with one full shell of electrons to a new electron shell
This is hilarious (of course, it wouldn’t be the first time the IMF produced something hilarious). Anyway, apart from the west i.e. the US having promoted instability in large swaths of the world, accompanied by hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths (‘but they lived in unstable countries so they would have been killed anyway probably’), this:
While the west is doing its utmost to become even more dependent on foreign commodities - on a truly monumental scale, but energy trans believers do not seem to realize that. (If you’re a progressive try Simon Michaux, a conservative try Mark P Mills) - at the same time the west is more antagonistic than ever post 1991. Dividing the world into people like us and those not like us (automatically they’re against us).
The west completely, totally and fundamentally relies on Chinese mineral- and rare earth mining and processing. That includes the US defense industry: your typical US destroyer or sub needs 5 tons of Chinese produced and processed rare earths. F35s (hello Scholz) don’t fly without Chinese input…
As the west fell at the feet of intellectual giants like Al Gore and Greta Thunberg, the Chinese bought stakes in mines across the world. They seem to still understand what ‘interests’ mean…We consider that foul play these days.
But before the above juxtaposition of the west vs the rest begins to show its real world consequences (to westerners the real world seems to be an ever more mysterious place, intellectually to be avoided and physically mainly suited for holidays - and the corresponding CO2- guilt), i hope the hopeful have also witnessed one wind project after another being canceled now that, as QE ended and interest rates rose, the real price is becoming apparent - a bit. I hope everyone sees renewables companies and suppliers having significant economic troubles.
I hope it’s known that those nations with the highest penetration of renewables (globally it’s still only 4% or so, at a cost of 4 T) have the highest energy prices (but let’s blame foreign autocrats for western voters turning angry, not home-politics by the well-off).
Everywhere in Europe elec grids are at their max. And this was predicted years ago since it’s not difficult to forecast that adding renewables means adding instability (even the Guardian wrote pieces). Yet no politico acted and no media outlet made a fuss. You don’t do that when the fate of the planet (All hail The Planet)) apparently is at stake. (Nor was there a push for nuclear…). Let alone a push for common sense and realism.
Now we’re here:
Renewable energy projects worth billions stuck on hold
Some new solar and wind sites are waiting up to 10 to 15 years to be connected because of a lack of capacity in the system - known as the "grid".
https://bbc.in/41sjH6u
Silence of the Grid Experts by Planning Engineer Russell Schussler
There are many reasons why grid experts within the electric utility industry have not spoken out when unrealistic “green” goals were being developed and promoted over the last 20 years or so. A more open debate during this period might have helped provide a more realistic foundation for future development. This posting describes some reasons as to why at the corporate level electric utilities did not speak out more in defense of grid reliability. Collectively these factors tended to eliminate grid experts from playing any role in the development of policies impacting the grid.
https://bit.ly/3Wifykl
For those who like buckets of cold water, just today German Lars Schernikau - you may want to follow him on LinkedIn, just like Michael Liebreich - wrote a reality check on Germany’s electrification. (With more links in the first comment a.o. to Mark P Mills).
𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙝𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙖𝙣 "𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙚𝙡𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙘" 𝙂𝙚𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙮, 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙛 𝙖 𝟔𝟎 𝙈𝙞𝙤 𝙘𝙖𝙧𝙨, 𝙣𝙚𝙚𝙙𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙚?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/larsschernikau_solarpower-wind-energysecurity-activity-7182992426163200000-jzy5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Myth: Solar and wind are helping save our grid from extreme heat.
Truth: Preferences for Solar and Wind have made our grid embarrassingly vulnerable to heat waves—and cold snaps—that a fossil-fueled grid could easily manage.
https://open.substack.com/pub/alexepstein/p/myth-solar-and-wind-are-helping-save