It feels as if we have moved on from the inflation shock caused by gas supply disruptions in late 2021 and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
My employer who is partially involved in selling steam and electricity was hedged until mis year for his purchase. Its anecdotal but di dont think they are the only one to operate with hedge no rolled over due to cost
My humble forecast: in 6 to 10 months ukraine-russia war will be over and Putin will not be in charge. In my opinion, he is overdosed with cortisone and surely does not have Addison’s disease (which is cured with cortisone and which could be manageable without problems), otherwise he would not be so swollen. So I think he takes cortisone for other reasons that are not compatible with a long life expectancy or with a quality of life that allows you to hop from one conference to another for a long time or even just to show yourself in public without giving the impression of being more dead than alive. Taken at certain doses and for a long time cortisone itself is a sentence, among other things it leads to diabetes with all that follows. So G7 will take the chance to lift the ban on oil and gas. There will be a temporal coincidence between the drop in production costs and the drop in economic growth expected by Mario Draghi with EU rates that consequently will return to the 2% area at least in a couple of years.
very important data analysis, many thanks.
+ in the past, reports of Europe's death have been greatly exaggerated
+ due to low public debt, Germany can spend billions on subsidizing cheaper energy
+ France has nuclear and Macron is willing to accept conflict with Germany to push it further
- Germany has the world's stupidest energy policy
- China is no longer a get-rich-quick card for Europe
Speaking of problematic EU, here's right wing american analysts' point of view:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/former-ecb-president-mario-draghi-discusses-the-death-of-the-eurozone/
Seems very plausible
My employer who is partially involved in selling steam and electricity was hedged until mis year for his purchase. Its anecdotal but di dont think they are the only one to operate with hedge no rolled over due to cost
My humble forecast: in 6 to 10 months ukraine-russia war will be over and Putin will not be in charge. In my opinion, he is overdosed with cortisone and surely does not have Addison’s disease (which is cured with cortisone and which could be manageable without problems), otherwise he would not be so swollen. So I think he takes cortisone for other reasons that are not compatible with a long life expectancy or with a quality of life that allows you to hop from one conference to another for a long time or even just to show yourself in public without giving the impression of being more dead than alive. Taken at certain doses and for a long time cortisone itself is a sentence, among other things it leads to diabetes with all that follows. So G7 will take the chance to lift the ban on oil and gas. There will be a temporal coincidence between the drop in production costs and the drop in economic growth expected by Mario Draghi with EU rates that consequently will return to the 2% area at least in a couple of years.