I approach any forecast with a healthy dose of skepticism—whether AI becomes sentient, the emergence of AGI or ASI, the trajectory of the economy or stock market, the likelihood of a recession, inflation trends, or any other complex phenomenon. These are extraordinarily intricate systems shaped by countless variables, many of which are unpredictable or even unknowable.
When I find myself forced to make predictions, I always remind myself of this quote, which serves as a grounding perspective and a reminder not to get carried away by the illusion of certainty in such inherently uncertain domains:
“Nobody knows anything...... Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out, it's a guess and, if you're lucky, an educated one.” – William Goldman.
This quote transcends the film industry and applies universally to forecasting challenges. Whether we're predicting technological breakthroughs, financial markets, or global crises, even the most informed projections are, at best, educated guesses.
That said, I am not suggesting we abandon forecasting altogether. Forecasting is essential for planning, but it should focus on preparing for a range of scenarios, each with probability, rather than hinging on a single, overly definitive outlook.
When I was a young sell side analyst, I was told that my job was to "speak on your industry and stocks with 90% confidence on *at best* 10% knowledge, because that 10% is already an order of magnitude more than the average salesperson or portfolio manager client, who have *at best* 1%" https://open.substack.com/pub/gunnarmiller/p/the-most-important-conversations .
I agree with your post. I commented on a note yesterday about forecasting: https://substack.com/@microexcellence/note/c-113596517
I approach any forecast with a healthy dose of skepticism—whether AI becomes sentient, the emergence of AGI or ASI, the trajectory of the economy or stock market, the likelihood of a recession, inflation trends, or any other complex phenomenon. These are extraordinarily intricate systems shaped by countless variables, many of which are unpredictable or even unknowable.
When I find myself forced to make predictions, I always remind myself of this quote, which serves as a grounding perspective and a reminder not to get carried away by the illusion of certainty in such inherently uncertain domains:
“Nobody knows anything...... Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out, it's a guess and, if you're lucky, an educated one.” – William Goldman.
This quote transcends the film industry and applies universally to forecasting challenges. Whether we're predicting technological breakthroughs, financial markets, or global crises, even the most informed projections are, at best, educated guesses.
That said, I am not suggesting we abandon forecasting altogether. Forecasting is essential for planning, but it should focus on preparing for a range of scenarios, each with probability, rather than hinging on a single, overly definitive outlook.
Yes, we know who you mean!
Off topic:
On substack there is a cloned fake profile named joachimklement1 who contacts users probably for the purpose of scams or something.
It happened to me this week.
Wow, thanks for telling me
When I was a young sell side analyst, I was told that my job was to "speak on your industry and stocks with 90% confidence on *at best* 10% knowledge, because that 10% is already an order of magnitude more than the average salesperson or portfolio manager client, who have *at best* 1%" https://open.substack.com/pub/gunnarmiller/p/the-most-important-conversations .
Or as I tell my juniors: professional bullahitting is a core competence. I fully agree.