I can’t share professional work here because these missives go out to a broad audience, many of which are not paying for my research published behind a paywall (which begs the question, why aren’t you paying for research?). As you might imagine, questions about the possibility of recession and the path forward for inflation are the key topics everybody wants to discuss with me. I make no secret of the fact that I think a recession in the US is all but inevitable, but when it starts and how deep and long-lasting it will be, remains an open question.
Tell me you're Pollyanna-ish dreamer with your head in the sand, without actually telling me you're Pollyanna-ish dreamer with your head in the sand.
"With these labour market numbers holding up we're heading for a soft landing."