The problem with monetary policy has recently been neatly summarized by US economist Jeremy Rudd: “Policymaking unfolds on a ‘darkling plain,’ and its practitioners – as well as those who seek to advocate an alternative course – will invariably be burdened by a highly imperfect understanding of how the economy works; noisy and revision-plagued data; and outcomes that cannot even be specified in advance, let alone be assigned a credible probability weight”
"I think most of what we today take as conventional wisdom in economics will be overturned."
delete 'economics' and insert 'medicine', 'physics' or 'evolution' and your sentence still holds true.
Interesting to read some columns of 2022 again. This one reminded me of a recent article in The Economist on the late Arthur F. Burns: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/12/20/the-federal-reserves-great-anti-hero-deserves-a-second-look