In the Terminator movies, the US Department of Defence started using Skynet as an AI system for defence purposes in 1994. The AI learns fast and by 1997, the AI had gone out of control and started a war with humans that lasted until 2029. That timeline was a bit premature, but with the jumps AI technology has made recently, some people warn that the arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could be just years away and
Actually any one specific technology will not continue exponentially (floppy disk or optical disk for example) but the ability to do the broader thing like store information can. There are many examples going back hundreds of years in technology.
Inclined to agree with you - but wadoino?-)
I took the overconfidence quiz. I got 8 out of 10. But even though I didn’t know the exact answer, I had a rough idea of what the result of each one could be. On question 9 and 4, I could even do a calculation knowing the circumference of the earth. The only two I had no idea about were 7 and 10 and I guessed a range that I thought was huge in order to get the answer right. For both, I wrote a range between 50 and a million, not even getting close to the answer. And the funny thing is that I consider myself a person with a great sense of measure. For example, on Sunday I predicted Sinner’s victory over Tsitsipas in an hour and 20 minutes and I was wrong by 5 minutes. But when it comes to something for which we have no proved reference points, then everything falls apart.