Wonder if there is any research that looked at whether length of reports alone is correlated to future returns (i.e. whether length or more likely significant increases in length of reporting is correlated to disappointing performance threreafter and vice versa)
So, in the future, if everyone is using the AI tools ( I do not think there is a significant difference between ChatGPT, Claud, and Gemini, especially when it comes to summarization), we will see the stock go in one direction or another more than when humans are summarizing as they will not have the same summary just because everyone will get a very similar summary and may react similarly. Is this possible, or is it happening on a small scale right now, or am I overanalyzing the situation? What kind of risk does it create to the stability of the market?
I think something like this is already happening right now. I know that hedge funds use AI already to evaluate earnings calls and company results in real time. If they do something similar as this paper suggests, they will pounce on the stock more aggressively if the machine says buy, thus increasing the swings in share price in the during and immediately after an earnings call. I think normal analysts and investors can't compete with the hedge funds on speed. But the methodology still helps them to get a clearer picture about the company's fortunes and what it really says. Essentially, it helps normal analysts and investors get rid of the noise and not get swayed by charming CEOs.
There may be a use case yet for LLMs. I read 10 prospectuses over the last weekend. Roughly 1,000 pages. Probably 80% boilerplate on "risks", etc. I can see a case (and I think I'll write a prompt) to read prospectuses, identify common boilerplate and then note that in the summary as essentially a footnote, unless there's any risk outside the standard.
I think you could do the same for privacy policies and for terms of use in online applications.
Wonder if there is any research that looked at whether length of reports alone is correlated to future returns (i.e. whether length or more likely significant increases in length of reporting is correlated to disappointing performance threreafter and vice versa)
Oh yes, there is: https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/an-interesting-way-to-detect-future
Interesting post!
So, in the future, if everyone is using the AI tools ( I do not think there is a significant difference between ChatGPT, Claud, and Gemini, especially when it comes to summarization), we will see the stock go in one direction or another more than when humans are summarizing as they will not have the same summary just because everyone will get a very similar summary and may react similarly. Is this possible, or is it happening on a small scale right now, or am I overanalyzing the situation? What kind of risk does it create to the stability of the market?
I think something like this is already happening right now. I know that hedge funds use AI already to evaluate earnings calls and company results in real time. If they do something similar as this paper suggests, they will pounce on the stock more aggressively if the machine says buy, thus increasing the swings in share price in the during and immediately after an earnings call. I think normal analysts and investors can't compete with the hedge funds on speed. But the methodology still helps them to get a clearer picture about the company's fortunes and what it really says. Essentially, it helps normal analysts and investors get rid of the noise and not get swayed by charming CEOs.
There may be a use case yet for LLMs. I read 10 prospectuses over the last weekend. Roughly 1,000 pages. Probably 80% boilerplate on "risks", etc. I can see a case (and I think I'll write a prompt) to read prospectuses, identify common boilerplate and then note that in the summary as essentially a footnote, unless there's any risk outside the standard.
I think you could do the same for privacy policies and for terms of use in online applications.
Thanks for kicking this off in my head!
Agree. And see my answer to Marginal Gains Newsletter above.