Ever since Liberation Day, many others and I have been saying that the true damage does not come from the tariffs but from the uncertainty created by the constant changes in tariff and fiscal policy.
Incompetence and corruption are really expensive. Too bad the tax payers representatives aren’t demanding action. I’m reading Left Behind by Paul Collier. It’s about developing countries and left behind places and how they can spiral up. Developed rich countries seem too complicated and sophisticated for this analysis, but the foundational power to tax and provide security requires building trust. All the places that fail to spiral up have problems with corruption and an inability to provide a secure predictable environment. The one good thing about the Trump experience is it is forcing us to see what really makes societies strong and resilient.
The effect is linear in the first instance. And there are such models that combine soft and hard data. Every major investment bank has that, including me, but they are all behind paywalls. Sorrry.
Incompetence and corruption are really expensive. Too bad the tax payers representatives aren’t demanding action. I’m reading Left Behind by Paul Collier. It’s about developing countries and left behind places and how they can spiral up. Developed rich countries seem too complicated and sophisticated for this analysis, but the foundational power to tax and provide security requires building trust. All the places that fail to spiral up have problems with corruption and an inability to provide a secure predictable environment. The one good thing about the Trump experience is it is forcing us to see what really makes societies strong and resilient.
is the uncertainty effect linear on the equity mkt?
i wish there was a report that would combine uncertainty+soft+hard data to provide greater confidence on mkt trajectory.
because currently, the only appearance is there may be noise-level earnings decline in q3.
The effect is linear in the first instance. And there are such models that combine soft and hard data. Every major investment bank has that, including me, but they are all behind paywalls. Sorrry.
sad...dont need propietary details , just outline and projection summary.
am big fan of cembalest that summarizes some of this, despite his censure from dimon.