Joachim do you think that the effects of climate change on proximate regions will lead to a markedly different outcome than experienced in Japan? The Japanese are notoriously averse to immigration and as an island nation they have the luxury of vast seas to keep unwanted immigrants out. The US and Europe, on the other hand, are connected by land to continents which may be the source of large numbers of emigrants due to cities and regions becoming increasingly inhospitable due to climate change causing heightened water stress, agricultural degradation, prevalence of disease and hotter nights.
Yes, immigration makes a difference and is the reason why European countries have less of a demographic problem than Japan and the Us even less than Europe. But the difference is quantitative and gradual, not qualitative. As for the impact of climate change on migration there is clearly an increase in migration from south to north going to happen. The problem is just how developed countries in Europe and the US will react to that. The story of the 2015 refugee crisis in Europe and the Trump years in the US indicates that developed countries will try to pull up the drawbridge pretty quicky and if necessary treat migrants inhumanely to protect their wealth.
You have not even included the big one: automation! The declining opportunities will differ on function and industry but will all contribute to an even greater decrease in the ratio of available dependence.
Joachim do you think that the effects of climate change on proximate regions will lead to a markedly different outcome than experienced in Japan? The Japanese are notoriously averse to immigration and as an island nation they have the luxury of vast seas to keep unwanted immigrants out. The US and Europe, on the other hand, are connected by land to continents which may be the source of large numbers of emigrants due to cities and regions becoming increasingly inhospitable due to climate change causing heightened water stress, agricultural degradation, prevalence of disease and hotter nights.
Yes, immigration makes a difference and is the reason why European countries have less of a demographic problem than Japan and the Us even less than Europe. But the difference is quantitative and gradual, not qualitative. As for the impact of climate change on migration there is clearly an increase in migration from south to north going to happen. The problem is just how developed countries in Europe and the US will react to that. The story of the 2015 refugee crisis in Europe and the Trump years in the US indicates that developed countries will try to pull up the drawbridge pretty quicky and if necessary treat migrants inhumanely to protect their wealth.
You have not even included the big one: automation! The declining opportunities will differ on function and industry but will all contribute to an even greater decrease in the ratio of available dependence.