As the West and China/Russia drift apart economically, both the US and the EU try to decouple their supply chains from China, Russia, and their allies. This has created a lot of concern about the supply of critical raw materials like rare earth metals that are used in wind turbines and other modern applications. Obviously, if supply becomes constrained, prices for these commodities have to rise. How much exactly is something a new research paper by the IMF has tried to calculate. And the results are not pretty.
Economic- and financial literacy seem pretty rare amongst US neocons *, who have had a pretty big ear in Washington the past decades compared to their numbers vs traditional conservatives - if those exist in the US- and vs liberals. (Both group have of course now also turned pretty hawkish). Then again, plenty neocons and conservatives have stated that deficits don't matter and that in fact they help to 'starve the beast'. Though every time one of them occupies the white house the beast gets bigger...
While the climate alarm segment of society, mostly middle class, sees economic growth as harmful and thus you can hear them say and see them write along the lines of 'a little bit less should not be a bad thing'. The global South of course, in the name of Climate Justice **, should be allowed (you know by who) to experience prosperity, but prefrebly fueled by renewable energy.
The political working group of the IPCC has been pretty much captured by the degrowth set if you'd had to belief the latest 2021 IPCC AR6 report:
The Political Agenda of the IPCC
'The IPCC continues (emphasis added):
The starting point for this virtuous circle are inner transitions. Inner transitions occur within individuals, organisations and even larger jurisdictions that alter beliefs and actions involving climate change (Woiwode et al. 2021). An inner transition within an individual (see e.g., Parodi and Tamm 2018) typically involves a person gaining a deepening sense of peace and a willingness to help others, as well as protecting the climate and the planet . . .”
What are examples of such “inner transitions”? The IPCC explains:
Examples have also been seen in relation to a similar set of inner transitions to individuals, organisations and societies, which involve embracing post-development, degrowth, or non-material values that challenge carbon-intensive lifestyles and development models . . .
The IPCC discusses the importance of “degrowth” to its vision of transformation in its AR6 Working Group 2 report:
Consumption reductions, both voluntary and policy-induced, can have positive and double-dividend effects on efficiency as well as reductions in energy and materials use . . . a low-carbon transition in conjunction with social sustainability is possible, even without economic growth (Kallis et al. 2012; Jackson and Victor 2016; Stuart et al. 2017; Chapman and Fraser 2019; D’Alessandro et al. 2019; Gabriel and Bond 2019; Huang et al. 2019; Victor 2019). Such degrowth pathways may be crucial in combining technical feasibility of mitigation with social development goals (Hickel et al. 2021; Keyßer and Lenzen 2021).'
In 2005 Chalmers Johnson wrote this essay on the likely US reaction to the emergence of China while he also predicted correctly Japan's turn to the right and its current rearming.
* They did think of having the Iraqi gov send all their oil revenues into a US bank account to 'combat corruption, money laundering and Islamic terrorism'.
** Rightneousness is at 1970s levels these days, let me introduce the concept of 'Hydrogen Justice' posited by a bunch of well meaning German academics:
'This paper introduces the concept of hydrogen justice as an analytical toolkit to help examining justice challenges of the global hydrogen transition. Placing hydrogen justice at the nexus of energy, water and climate justice, and incorporating crucial insights from political ecology and decolonial studies we highlight potential hydrogen injustices'
The German team is led by Prof. Dr. Franziska Müller whose 'main research interests are global climate and energy governance and (constructivist, poststructuralist and postcolonial) theories of international relations'. She and her team work on an 'African energy transition'.
Because The Guilty have to guide their African Children to a better Africa. A world they apparently can't find on their own. Ask any NGO.
I fear that the continued de-coupling plus a scramble for "transition metals" will likely lead to some very brutal proxy wars (just like the 70s). Just my 2c.
(1) I have read there is a limit on (some of?) the minerals not yet extracted from mines, and already it is increasingly expensive as ores quality declines - if yes, what do we do in 2050s?
(2) The environmental damage done by mines, and the use of slave & child labour seem to be breach of the Greens ESG measures, or just humanity.
Meanwhile governments encourage EVs which use multiples more minerals to make and whose batteries will need replacement in time.
Economic- and financial literacy seem pretty rare amongst US neocons *, who have had a pretty big ear in Washington the past decades compared to their numbers vs traditional conservatives - if those exist in the US- and vs liberals. (Both group have of course now also turned pretty hawkish). Then again, plenty neocons and conservatives have stated that deficits don't matter and that in fact they help to 'starve the beast'. Though every time one of them occupies the white house the beast gets bigger...
While the climate alarm segment of society, mostly middle class, sees economic growth as harmful and thus you can hear them say and see them write along the lines of 'a little bit less should not be a bad thing'. The global South of course, in the name of Climate Justice **, should be allowed (you know by who) to experience prosperity, but prefrebly fueled by renewable energy.
The political working group of the IPCC has been pretty much captured by the degrowth set if you'd had to belief the latest 2021 IPCC AR6 report:
The Political Agenda of the IPCC
'The IPCC continues (emphasis added):
The starting point for this virtuous circle are inner transitions. Inner transitions occur within individuals, organisations and even larger jurisdictions that alter beliefs and actions involving climate change (Woiwode et al. 2021). An inner transition within an individual (see e.g., Parodi and Tamm 2018) typically involves a person gaining a deepening sense of peace and a willingness to help others, as well as protecting the climate and the planet . . .”
What are examples of such “inner transitions”? The IPCC explains:
Examples have also been seen in relation to a similar set of inner transitions to individuals, organisations and societies, which involve embracing post-development, degrowth, or non-material values that challenge carbon-intensive lifestyles and development models . . .
The IPCC discusses the importance of “degrowth” to its vision of transformation in its AR6 Working Group 2 report:
Consumption reductions, both voluntary and policy-induced, can have positive and double-dividend effects on efficiency as well as reductions in energy and materials use . . . a low-carbon transition in conjunction with social sustainability is possible, even without economic growth (Kallis et al. 2012; Jackson and Victor 2016; Stuart et al. 2017; Chapman and Fraser 2019; D’Alessandro et al. 2019; Gabriel and Bond 2019; Huang et al. 2019; Victor 2019). Such degrowth pathways may be crucial in combining technical feasibility of mitigation with social development goals (Hickel et al. 2021; Keyßer and Lenzen 2021).'
https://bit.ly/42QxGo4
Boing...
China:
In 2005 Chalmers Johnson wrote this essay on the likely US reaction to the emergence of China while he also predicted correctly Japan's turn to the right and its current rearming.
No Longer the “Lone” Superpower
Coming to Terms with China
BY CHALMERS JOHNSON
https://bit.ly/3NZisaR
* They did think of having the Iraqi gov send all their oil revenues into a US bank account to 'combat corruption, money laundering and Islamic terrorism'.
http://tinyurl.com/3jv2s9ky
** Rightneousness is at 1970s levels these days, let me introduce the concept of 'Hydrogen Justice' posited by a bunch of well meaning German academics:
'This paper introduces the concept of hydrogen justice as an analytical toolkit to help examining justice challenges of the global hydrogen transition. Placing hydrogen justice at the nexus of energy, water and climate justice, and incorporating crucial insights from political ecology and decolonial studies we highlight potential hydrogen injustices'
https://bit.ly/3OHI2li
The German team is led by Prof. Dr. Franziska Müller whose 'main research interests are global climate and energy governance and (constructivist, poststructuralist and postcolonial) theories of international relations'. She and her team work on an 'African energy transition'.
Because The Guilty have to guide their African Children to a better Africa. A world they apparently can't find on their own. Ask any NGO.
I fear that the continued de-coupling plus a scramble for "transition metals" will likely lead to some very brutal proxy wars (just like the 70s). Just my 2c.
A helpful measure for geopolitical risk beyond headline sentiment analysis.
Great work by the IMF and appreciate you sharing the insights.
A hopeful argument that trade will continue; but:
(1) I have read there is a limit on (some of?) the minerals not yet extracted from mines, and already it is increasingly expensive as ores quality declines - if yes, what do we do in 2050s?
(2) The environmental damage done by mines, and the use of slave & child labour seem to be breach of the Greens ESG measures, or just humanity.
Meanwhile governments encourage EVs which use multiples more minerals to make and whose batteries will need replacement in time.
Is it they or I who is mad?