While only one particular data point (and I am curious at how close it will be to the official number), IDT Corp released their September report of NRSInsights for transactions that they see through their POS network: it seems that on a dollar weighted basis the top 500 items increased 2.1% yoy (a decline from the 3.5% inflation reported in August) https://www.idt.net/nrsinsights-september-2024-retail-same-store-sales-report/
While only one particular data point (and I am curious at how close it will be to the official number), IDT Corp released their September report of NRSInsights for transactions that they see through their POS network: it seems that on a dollar weighted basis the top 500 items increased 2.1% yoy (a decline from the 3.5% inflation reported in August) https://www.idt.net/nrsinsights-september-2024-retail-same-store-sales-report/
If this is confirmed in the official report, that would be very good news.
Have we slayed the inflation dragon?
No, the dragon cannot be slain. It sometime snoozes or even goes into hibernation. We hope for the latter.
FRED 5 year Break even inflation rate is 2.21%, which is acceptable. Since GFC 2009 we have become used to IR of 0% or so. Before that 3% was normal.
Financial Repression: it helps Fed & Treasury to repay Debt if IR is 2% with Inflation at 3%.
Conclusion - expect IR to settle at above 2%.