How investors make their forecasts

One of the silliest exercises in finance is the habit of people to make return forecasts for the next 12 months or so (and before you complain, yes, I am guilty as of doing that myself). We all know (or at least should know) that such short-term forecasts are hopelessly unreliable. Yet, it is interesting to examine how different groups of investors form their return expectations. To that end,

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