Assume you have the privilege to coach an NBA basketball team. In the first game, you score a narrow win over your opponent. Will you change your line-up for the next match? Now assume that the next match ends by the same narrow margin as the first game, but this time you lose by that margin. What are you going to do for the third match?
This is so true and should be self-evident; but unfortunately is often overlooked - whether in sports, finance, project management, health, life.
On the other hand, over-reacting to (slightly) bad news is often as bad as ignoring the need for after-action-reviews during good times.
Reminds me a lot of Deming’s funnel experiment. If you don’t know it, pick up a copy of Out of the Crisis.