Last Thursday, I wrote about why I think that investing to exploit vulnerabilities in markets or companies only works if one has a good idea of what could trigger a shift in market assessment and when that may occur.
However, we are biased to think they are not rare and not even lucky -- we are inclined to think that folks like Roubini (who by the way, said in '22 a a global stagflationary recession was highly likely), and Taleb are a lot smarter than everybody else. Merely because of a few bulls-eyes!
That's the Taleb Paradox: he says we are all Fooled by Randomness; Warren Buffett just by coincidence did all the right things for a few decades (and lived long enough to enjoy the compounding effects), and yet we hope that Taleb *knows* better than everyone else how to make tons of money... by betting on catastrophies.
"Lucky bears are a rare breed", exactly.
However, we are biased to think they are not rare and not even lucky -- we are inclined to think that folks like Roubini (who by the way, said in '22 a a global stagflationary recession was highly likely), and Taleb are a lot smarter than everybody else. Merely because of a few bulls-eyes!
That's the Taleb Paradox: he says we are all Fooled by Randomness; Warren Buffett just by coincidence did all the right things for a few decades (and lived long enough to enjoy the compounding effects), and yet we hope that Taleb *knows* better than everyone else how to make tons of money... by betting on catastrophies.
This is equally true and frustrating.