And yet one wonders if the next bear market will be easily mitigated by opening the flood gates. If (and this is an admittedly big if) we're talking about Herbert Hoover v.2, namely a protectionism-fed global recession, at what point will the bond market get too jittery? Empirical data works, until you have an unprecedented situation.
True, but for now it seems US Treasury markets are worried about federal deficits under Trump. the bond vigilantes are circling in the US since Trump won the election...
I like the fact that JK cites authorities for his views. That increased fiscal spending causes Treasury rates to rise seems clear. At the same time JK argues that the authorities can absorb the changes. The concern is that they can until they cannot - if some major crisis overwhelms the markets. This is a long way off but could happen. In the meantime Treasuries are solid - except for the interest rate.
"To cut a long story short, he found that on days when the US government introduced spending decisions to rescue the economy, real yields increased, driving bond prices down."
I've always wondered if this is a "chicken and egg" question; do bond yields increase because bond prices go down, or do bond prices go down because bond yields increase? Also, why did fixed income people come up with this backwards math in the first place? I guess it's akin to that old aphorism "whether the glass is half-full or half-empty depends on whether you're pouring or drinking".
The U.S. national debt situation has become increasingly precarious, with debt accumulation accelerating at an unprecedented pace of approximately $1 trillion every 100 days. As of late 2024, the total debt approaches $36 trillion, reflecting a sharp upward trajectory that could exceed $50 trillion before 2030 and faster if economic or other shocks occur.
Current fiscal metrics paint a concerning picture:
- Federal Revenue: ~$5 trillion
- Federal Spending: ~$7 trillion
- Interest Payments: Over $1 trillion annually at ~4% rates
- Annual Federal Budget Deficit: ~$2 trillion
This creates an unsustainable cycle where:
1. Rising interest payments consume an ever-larger portion of the federal budget
2. The gap between revenue and spending continues to widen
3. Social Security's trust fund faces depletion within 8-10 years
4. The "too big to fail" doctrine encourages risky corporate behavior
Historical reference points are illuminating:
- The last balanced budget (1999/2000) demonstrates fiscal balance is possible
- Post-2016 shift in Republican fiscal stance marked a departure from traditional conservatism
- Recent crises have normalized massive federal interventions
Looking ahead, several factors could accelerate the debt crisis:
We cannot escape every mess by increasing debt and not reducing the debt during good times. The reckoning is coming sooner or later, and it is not a question of if but when. The politicians’ desire to kick the can down the road will not work forever. Someone will have to make difficult decisions.
Brilliant illustration with so much fundamentalism .
A case well-made, thanks.
And yet one wonders if the next bear market will be easily mitigated by opening the flood gates. If (and this is an admittedly big if) we're talking about Herbert Hoover v.2, namely a protectionism-fed global recession, at what point will the bond market get too jittery? Empirical data works, until you have an unprecedented situation.
True, but for now it seems US Treasury markets are worried about federal deficits under Trump. the bond vigilantes are circling in the US since Trump won the election...
Superb observation!
I like the fact that JK cites authorities for his views. That increased fiscal spending causes Treasury rates to rise seems clear. At the same time JK argues that the authorities can absorb the changes. The concern is that they can until they cannot - if some major crisis overwhelms the markets. This is a long way off but could happen. In the meantime Treasuries are solid - except for the interest rate.
"To cut a long story short, he found that on days when the US government introduced spending decisions to rescue the economy, real yields increased, driving bond prices down."
I've always wondered if this is a "chicken and egg" question; do bond yields increase because bond prices go down, or do bond prices go down because bond yields increase? Also, why did fixed income people come up with this backwards math in the first place? I guess it's akin to that old aphorism "whether the glass is half-full or half-empty depends on whether you're pouring or drinking".
Whilst I'm not an adherent of modern monetary theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_monetary_theory , I also wonder whether the German "debt brake" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_balanced_budget_amendment has done more harm than good. In any case, defending it just cost the Finance Minister his job and drove new elections on 23 Feb 2025.
The U.S. national debt situation has become increasingly precarious, with debt accumulation accelerating at an unprecedented pace of approximately $1 trillion every 100 days. As of late 2024, the total debt approaches $36 trillion, reflecting a sharp upward trajectory that could exceed $50 trillion before 2030 and faster if economic or other shocks occur.
Current fiscal metrics paint a concerning picture:
- Federal Revenue: ~$5 trillion
- Federal Spending: ~$7 trillion
- Interest Payments: Over $1 trillion annually at ~4% rates
- Annual Federal Budget Deficit: ~$2 trillion
This creates an unsustainable cycle where:
1. Rising interest payments consume an ever-larger portion of the federal budget
2. The gap between revenue and spending continues to widen
3. Social Security's trust fund faces depletion within 8-10 years
4. The "too big to fail" doctrine encourages risky corporate behavior
Historical reference points are illuminating:
- The last balanced budget (1999/2000) demonstrates fiscal balance is possible
- Post-2016 shift in Republican fiscal stance marked a departure from traditional conservatism
- Recent crises have normalized massive federal interventions
Looking ahead, several factors could accelerate the debt crisis:
- Proposed Trump’s expansionary policies, adding $7+ trillion
- Rising interest rates increasing debt service costs
- Aging population straining entitlement programs
- Potential economic shocks requiring additional intervention
We cannot escape every mess by increasing debt and not reducing the debt during good times. The reckoning is coming sooner or later, and it is not a question of if but when. The politicians’ desire to kick the can down the road will not work forever. Someone will have to make difficult decisions.
You can see all the data here: https://www.usdebtclock.org/