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Michael L's avatar

Indeed: Correlation 🆚 causation…

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Martin Schwoerer's avatar

fascinating! Never heard of such a connection, but it's not really a big surprise.

I suppose the correlation would be even more compelling in times where people are invested with a lot of leverage.

Not sure whether the correlation is linear. Were domestic violence incidents at end-March 2020 (while volatility was skyrocketing) so much more frequent than on normal "bad" days?

My superficial interpretation is that a certain percentage of folks are under high pressure quite often, and they just snap when exposed to a trigger. The trigger can be all kinds of stuff: Christmas, lousy weather, a bad day at the markets... So we do have a kind of correlation, but at the same time it's somewhat random.

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Gunnar Miller's avatar

In the United States, suicide accounts for a significant portion of firearm-related deaths. According to data from the CDC and other organizations, in recent years around 24,000 to 25,000 (54-60%)of the roughly 40,000 annual firearm deaths are suicides. I would be interested to learn if these are included in "domestic crime" numbers or not.

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Joachim Klement's avatar

I think suicides are excluded since they don't constitute a 'crime'.

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Pip McIntyre's avatar

Policework deters crime.

Friday hypothesis - during period of stockmarket volatility police officers are distracted by thier Robinhood accounts, financial news and reports, thus are not paying as much attention to their work and crime figures reflect this.

We could extend this to dates of sports fixtures which also (and this is a true fact) distract policemen, not by patroling near the events but by listening to the scores and putting bets on while they should be working.

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Timothy Dempsey's avatar

No exposure through 401(k)s or 403(b)s?

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Joachim Klement's avatar

No idea

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Michael L's avatar

Do we have data relating to victims of registered investment advisor mis-selling? Where the crimes committed are presumably directed at those have been perceived to have directed or executed the mis-selling? Or would that data be too sensitive for comfort? And what about data on suicides by investment managers who have invested client monies in areas that were not within the.purview of what was agreed with the clients and things go so pear shaped because of unsustainable leverage that said managers see no way out of the abyss…..?

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Joachim Klement's avatar

I don't think we have any of that data.

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