No, I am not talking about elections, but about the famous Ben Graham quote (or was it Warren Buffet?) that “In the short-run, the stock market is a voting machine.
Intuitively, I like momentum-based strategies with a value „sanity check“. Unfortunately, this research appears to condemn this approach to the rubbish bin.
At the same time, it appears to support:
(1) long momentum strategies that re-balance the portfolio one every three months
(2) short strategies based on fundamentals
(3) ten-year return outlooks based on the CAPE of the market
I am pretty much with you. Personally, I use momentum for tactical considerations and to decide when to invest in a cheap stock or when to sell an expensive stock.
Meanwhile, value is my long-term anchor, but I have abandoned CAPE as a value metric. It has failed too often and too long. Nowadays I am back to the good old PE and Price/Book.
Let's reform the calendar so that a year is now 36 months.
..or 40 months if you want to it to be metric.
It will make us longer term thinkers, and another advantage is that by this measure I'm approaching my 16th birthday.
Intuitively, I like momentum-based strategies with a value „sanity check“. Unfortunately, this research appears to condemn this approach to the rubbish bin.
At the same time, it appears to support:
(1) long momentum strategies that re-balance the portfolio one every three months
(2) short strategies based on fundamentals
(3) ten-year return outlooks based on the CAPE of the market
What do you think?
I am pretty much with you. Personally, I use momentum for tactical considerations and to decide when to invest in a cheap stock or when to sell an expensive stock.
Meanwhile, value is my long-term anchor, but I have abandoned CAPE as a value metric. It has failed too often and too long. Nowadays I am back to the good old PE and Price/Book.