I don’t think I have ever responded to. a newsletter two days in a row, so this is a first and the result of your having written two excellent pieces on consequitive days.
Tendentially I find myself just on the other side of the “transitory” or “endemic” inflation line to you. But mine is a strong opinion weakly held. I see the same underlying and powerful deflationary pressures that you presumably do, see the supply chain bottlenecks as more or less a temporary phenomenon (I have four containers of product that have been waiting for over three months to be processed through LA Port so ‘supply chain disruptions’ is not a theoretical for me) and am sanguine about a resurgent boom: the shock to confidence and the exposure of incalculable ahut downs is having a severe effect on long term CAPEX. However inflation is the onlybway out of the hole governments have dug for themselves and they will continue tonabuse their “exorbitant privilege” until the printing press breaks. When that happens is anyone’s guess but the range of probable and potential outcomes is large that the caution around taking dogmatic positions is well made. Great post (even better than yesterday’s)
Thanks for the reply and I like that you use one of my favorite phrases: “strong opinions lightly held”. I used to be an inflation hawk to get rid of government debt just like you. However, I have come to conclude that going down the Japan way is much less lingual for the economy and certainly easier for politicians. That of course means declining growth but interestingly, Japanese equities have had a great decade since the financial crisis. Second best developed market after the US.
Joachim, I am a big fan of your newsletter/ blog/ substack/web3 project, especially the fact you keep us updated on academic research. Since you post daily but I can't read the posts daily I would love to have a weekly roundup of things you wrote, perhaps publish it on Thursdays. Perhaps something for you to think about doing in 2022.
I especially loved your piece on central bank digital currencies, thank you very much for writing that. To be honest I am sure I missed a lot of posts so I wonder what were your personal favorite (s) to write or the one(s) that got the most reactions?
Another suggestion for your end-of-year piece, if possible include some things about the "Starting position of the different markets and "things I bet won't change".
Again I imagine that writing this blog takes a lot more time than we think it does so a big thank you.
Thanks for the suggestions but the end of year posts are already written ;-)
In any case, since I have a regular day job I have to limit the time I spend on the blog, so I have to think how to provide a weekly roundup or something like it.
I don’t think I have ever responded to. a newsletter two days in a row, so this is a first and the result of your having written two excellent pieces on consequitive days.
Tendentially I find myself just on the other side of the “transitory” or “endemic” inflation line to you. But mine is a strong opinion weakly held. I see the same underlying and powerful deflationary pressures that you presumably do, see the supply chain bottlenecks as more or less a temporary phenomenon (I have four containers of product that have been waiting for over three months to be processed through LA Port so ‘supply chain disruptions’ is not a theoretical for me) and am sanguine about a resurgent boom: the shock to confidence and the exposure of incalculable ahut downs is having a severe effect on long term CAPEX. However inflation is the onlybway out of the hole governments have dug for themselves and they will continue tonabuse their “exorbitant privilege” until the printing press breaks. When that happens is anyone’s guess but the range of probable and potential outcomes is large that the caution around taking dogmatic positions is well made. Great post (even better than yesterday’s)
Thanks for the reply and I like that you use one of my favorite phrases: “strong opinions lightly held”. I used to be an inflation hawk to get rid of government debt just like you. However, I have come to conclude that going down the Japan way is much less lingual for the economy and certainly easier for politicians. That of course means declining growth but interestingly, Japanese equities have had a great decade since the financial crisis. Second best developed market after the US.
I would love to know if Japan is the future.
I think yes, for better or worse.
Joachim, I am a big fan of your newsletter/ blog/ substack/web3 project, especially the fact you keep us updated on academic research. Since you post daily but I can't read the posts daily I would love to have a weekly roundup of things you wrote, perhaps publish it on Thursdays. Perhaps something for you to think about doing in 2022.
I especially loved your piece on central bank digital currencies, thank you very much for writing that. To be honest I am sure I missed a lot of posts so I wonder what were your personal favorite (s) to write or the one(s) that got the most reactions?
Another suggestion for your end-of-year piece, if possible include some things about the "Starting position of the different markets and "things I bet won't change".
Again I imagine that writing this blog takes a lot more time than we think it does so a big thank you.
Thanks for the suggestions but the end of year posts are already written ;-)
In any case, since I have a regular day job I have to limit the time I spend on the blog, so I have to think how to provide a weekly roundup or something like it.
Cheers
Can be quick n dirty with title + links + eventually other metadata.