Over the last couple of weeks, I found myself debating with clients about the prospects for inflation. As long-time readers will know, I have been firmly in the camp of the folks who expected inflation to rise significantly about ten years ago. But as more and more empirical evidence came in on the ineffectiveness of quantitative easing and other monetary policies to spike inflation, I changed my mind and today, I think that inflation is unlikely to be a major problem in the next couple of years. But that wasn’t an easy process. It took me about two years to convert from one opinion to another and I still freely admit that I might well make a fool out of myself if inflation suddenly does rise dramatically and persists at high levels in the next couple of years.
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