In February, I wrote a post on the intraday movements of markets and how one can infer market sentiment from the drift in markets in reaction to macro news.
excellent. I have to see how this works out of sample.
I also like to look at the long-term (253 day) moving average of put/call options spreads. I think it would indicate whether basic market sentiment is rather high or low. Back in late 2021, positive sentiment was at a historical high, indicating too little fear and too much irrational exuberence, which I interpret as a clear warning sign. (That said, the market can remain exuberent longer than one can stay solvent.)
excellent. I have to see how this works out of sample.
I also like to look at the long-term (253 day) moving average of put/call options spreads. I think it would indicate whether basic market sentiment is rather high or low. Back in late 2021, positive sentiment was at a historical high, indicating too little fear and too much irrational exuberence, which I interpret as a clear warning sign. (That said, the market can remain exuberent longer than one can stay solvent.)