Klement on Investing

Klement on Investing

The world’s most common forecasting mistake
Forecasting is hard (especially about the future, one might add), but it is made harder when people use inadequate forecasting techniques.
 • Joachim Klement
We really are bad at forecasting markets
I am not breaking new ground when I say that most people are bad at forecasting financial markets.
 • Joachim Klement
Harder than forecasting the economy
Forecasting the economy is hard enough already, but when it comes to economic developments, there is one variable that is even harder to forecast than…
 • Joachim Klement
My 10 rules for forecasting
The nice thing about being an investor is that markets are driven by forces that change all the time.
 • Joachim Klement
Don’t bother forecasting the next 12 months
The title of this post may lead some readers to conclude that in the current environment, there are so many uncertainties that it is impossible to…
 • Joachim Klement
Do you need a global equity forecasting model?
Forming capital market assumptions (e.g., long-term return, risk, and covariance forecasts) is a key step in forming well-performing portfolios.
 • Joachim Klement
Forecasting the world after Covid-19
As we move past the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the focus of investors is shifting from the immediate economic damage to the way out of lockdown and…
 • Joachim Klement
A reminder: My 10 rules of forecasting
It’s election day in the United States and I bet everyone is breathing a sigh of relief that it is finally over - or is it?
 • Joachim Klement
A macro explanation of high US stock valuations
Last week, I wrote about a proposed method to improve the forecasting power of the cyclically adjusted P/E-ratio (CAPE).
 • Joachim Klement
More can be better
When it comes to forecasting stocks and other assets, I have long been a sceptic that more detailed information will improve forecasts.
 • Joachim Klement
Who forecasts how?
One of the eternal debates in the investment world is whether professional forecasters and investors are better at forecasting market and stock returns…
 • Joachim Klement
Build back better
Last week, I have written twice about the poor performance of forecasts in general and in recent years due to the extreme shocks from the pandemic…
 • Joachim Klement
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