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The world’s most common forecasting mistake
Forecasting is hard (especially about the future, one might add), but it is made harder when people use inadequate forecasting techniques. If you want…
Mar 1, 2023
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Joachim Klement
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The world’s most common forecasting mistake
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We really are bad at forecasting markets
I am not breaking new ground when I say that most people are bad at forecasting financial markets. But just how bad they are has been the focus of an…
Jun 6, 2023
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Joachim Klement
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We really are bad at forecasting markets
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Harder than forecasting the economy
Forecasting the economy is hard enough already, but when it comes to economic developments, there is one variable that is even harder to forecast than…
Nov 4, 2021
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Joachim Klement
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Harder than forecasting the economy
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Don’t bother forecasting the next 12 months
The title of this post may lead some readers to conclude that in the current environment, there are so many uncertainties that it is impossible to…
May 19, 2022
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Joachim Klement
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Don’t bother forecasting the next 12 months
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My 10 rules for forecasting
The nice thing about being an investor is that markets are driven by forces that change all the time. However, there are different “market regimes…
May 31, 2019
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Joachim Klement
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My 10 rules for forecasting
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Forecasting the world after Covid-19
As we move past the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the focus of investors is shifting from the immediate economic damage to the way out of lockdown and…
May 20, 2020
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Joachim Klement
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Forecasting the world after Covid-19
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A reminder: My 10 rules of forecasting
It’s election day in the United States and I bet everyone is breathing a sigh of relief that it is finally over - or is it? There is a non-negligible…
Nov 3, 2020
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Joachim Klement
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A reminder: My 10 rules of forecasting
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First you predict, then you take risks
Investors and corporate executives alike have to constantly do two things. First, they have to predict what is going to happen and then they have to…
Dec 5, 2023
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Joachim Klement
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First you predict, then you take risks
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Extrapolating the recent past
The last two years have been full of one-off surprises. A global pandemic, supply chain disruptions, the Ukraine war. No wonder investors have had a…
May 17, 2022
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Joachim Klement
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Extrapolating the recent past
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More can be better
When it comes to forecasting stocks and other assets, I have long been a sceptic that more detailed information will improve forecasts. To me, the…
Sep 13, 2023
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Joachim Klement
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More can be better
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MMT and inflation
The more I read about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) the more I think it should be renamed to “Ahistoric Monetary Theory”. It seems to me that advocates…
May 31, 2019
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Joachim Klement
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MMT and inflation
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Interest rates vs. earnings in 2023
A while ago, I wrote a note that claimed that changes in bond yields and inflation are much more important than changes in earnings for equity market…
Feb 21, 2023
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Joachim Klement
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Interest rates vs. earnings in 2023
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